Am Wochenende waren schon paar Inhalte durchgesickert, jetzt liegt das Original vor: Das Londoner International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) hat sich angeschaut, wie Europa – wohlgemerkt: in der NATO – seine Verteidigung ohne die USA organisieren könnte – und was es kosten würde. Das Ergebnis zweier Szenarien: es würde sehr teuer.
Aus der Zusammenfassung des IISS-Berichts Defending Europe: scenario-based capability requirements for NATO’s European members:
The first scenario examined deals with the protection of the global sea lines of communication (SLOCs). In this scenario, the United States has withdrawn from NATO and has also abandoned its role of providing global maritime presence and protection, not just for its own national interest but also as an international public good. It thus falls to European countries to achieve and sustain a stable maritime-security environment in European waters and beyond, to enable the free flow of international maritime trade, and to protect global maritime infrastructure. The IISS assesses that European NATO members would have to invest between US$94 billion and US$110bn to fill the capability gaps generated by this scenario.
The second scenario deals with the defence of European NATO territory against a state-level military attack. In this scenario, tensions between Russia and NATO members Lithuania and Poland escalate into war after the US has left NATO. This war results in the Russian occupation of Lithuania and some Polish territory seized by Russia. Invoking Article V, the European members of NATO direct the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) to plan Operation Eastern Shield to reassure Estonia, Latvia and Poland, and other front-line NATO member states, by deterring further Russian aggression. European NATO also prepares and assembles forces for Operation Eastern Storm, a military operation to restore Polish and Lithuanian government control over their territories.
The IISS assesses that European NATO members would have to invest between between US$288bn and US$357bn to fill the capability gaps generated by this scenario. These investments would establish a NATO Europe force level that would likely allow it to prevail in a limited regional war in Europe against a peer adversary.
Ehe jemand fragt: Das ist die IISS-Einschätzung für einen noch begrenzten Konflikt – denn:
The assessment does not cover a full-scale continental war in Europe.
(Foto: Niederländische Chinook-Hubschrauber landen am 9. Mai 2019 bei der Übung Green Griffin in Niedersachsen Bundeswehr-Fallschirmjäger an – Nico Engler/Division Schnelle Kräfte/Bundeswehr)