Ukraine/Russland/NATO – Sammler 17. Februar 2022 (mit Updates)

Auch nach der Ankündigung Russlands, einen Teil seiner Truppen in der Nähe der Ukraine abzuziehen, halten die Spannungen an: Nach Angaben der NATO gibt es keine Anzeichen für einen tatsächlichen solchen Abzug. Der Sammler am 17. Februar 2022:

• Am Rande des Treffens der NATO-Verteidigungsminister*innen verwies Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg darauf, dass die Allianz keine Abzugsbewegungen Russlands erkennen könne. Zugleich betonte er die Haltung des Bündnisses, für neue Mitglieder offen zu sein und eine Mitgliedschaft der Ukraine nicht auszuschließen:

Despite Moscow’s claims, we have seen no sign of withdrawal or de-escalation so far. On the contrary, Russia’s build-up appears to continue. We continue to monitor developments very closely.
We call on Russia to do what it says, and withdraw its forces from the borders of Ukraine. This will be an important first step towards a peaceful political solution. …
NATO and Allies are helping Ukraine boost its ability to defend itself.
Self-defence is a right enshrined in the UN Charter. And Allies are helping Ukraine to uphold that right. …
Today, Allies confirmed that NATO’s door remains open. Any decision on NATO membership is for NATO Allies and aspirant countries to take. Nobody else. The right of each nation to choose its own path is absolutely fundamental for European and transatlantic security. And it must be respected.
NATO Allies restated their strong support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both Georgia and Ukraine. We cannot accept a return to an age of spheres of influence. Where big powers bully, intimidate, or dictate to others. There can be no decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine. And no decisions about Georgia without Georgia.
We agreed that in times of tension, dialogue is even more important. NATO remains open to engaging with Russia in good faith. Allies are ready to sit down with Russia in the NATO-Russia Council. Address a wide range of issues. And find common ground.

• Im Osten der Ukraine wurden am (heutigen) Donnerstagmorgen Artillerieangriffe gemeldet – und die Separatisten beschuldigten die ukrainische Armee, während die Ukraine die von Russland unterstützten Separatisten dafür verantwortlich machte.

Aus der Zusammenfassung der Financial Times:

Kyiv and Moscow blamed each other for clashes in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region on Thursday as western officials continued to question Russia’s claims it had withdrawn troops from close to the country’s border.
The Ukrainian army said “Russian occupation forces” controlling breakaway far eastern regions of Ukraine had “with special cynicism” shelled a kindergarten in a village in the Luhansk region, injuring two civilians. …
Russia — which backs separatists in the Donbas but denies, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that it is a party to the conflict — blamed Ukraine for the escalation.

• US-Außenminister Antony Blinken will vor seiner geplanten Reise zur Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz nach New York fliegen, um selbst im UN-Sicherheitsrat zur Lage in der Ukraine Stellung nehmen, wie die Washington Post meldet:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will tell the United Nations Security Council on Thursday that “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion. This is a crucial moment,” U.S. United Nations Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.

• Am Donnerstagnachmittag meldeten mehrere Nachrichtenagenturen, Russland habe den stellvertretenden US-Botschafter in Moskau, Bartle Gorman, ausgewiesen – Details sind bislang unklar.
Update: Da scheint es etwas Verwirrung zu geben, da dieser Diplomat schon seit einer Weile nicht mehr an der Botschaft tätig ist – möglicherweise ist es eine bereits im Januar verfügte Ausweisung, im Rahmen der gegenseitigen, sagen wir mal Botschaftsreduzierungen in Washington und Moskau.

• US-Präsident Joe Biden hat die Einschätzung erneuert, dass ein russischer Einmarsch in der Ukraine bevorstehen könnte. Seine Aussagen im Wortlaut gegenüber Journalisten in Washington:

Question: What’s the threat of invasion of Ukraine?

Biden: It’s very high. They have not moved any of their troops out. They’ve moved more troops in, number one. Number two, we have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation. Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine to attack Ukraine, number one.
Number two, I’ve been waiting for a response from Putin to my letter, my response to him. … They’re faxing it here — not faxing it. They’re just sending it here. I have not read it yet. I cannot comment on it.

Q: Is Russia going through with it?

POTUS: Yes. My sense is that it will happen within the next several days.

Q: Is there any diplomatic path still available?

POTUS: Yes there is. That’s why I asked Secretary Blinken to go to the United Nations to make his statement today. He’ll lay out what that path is. I laid out a path to Putin as well, I think Sunday.  But there is a path. There is a way through this.

Q: Are you going to call Putin?

POTUS: I’m not calling — I have no plans to call Putin.

• Nach einem Bericht der russischen Nachrichtenagentur RIA hat Russland den USA eine schriftliche Stellungnahme zu den bisherigen hin- und hergeschickten Aussagen zu den russischen Forderungen nach Sicherheitsgarantien übergeben – und die US-Haltung als unzureichend abgelehnt. Aus der Meldung:

„Wir stellen fest, dass die amerikanische Seite keine konstruktive Antwort auf die grundlegenden Elemente des von der russischen Seite vorbereiteten Vertragsentwurfs über Sicherheitsgarantien gegeben hat“, so das Außenministerium in einer Erklärung.
Es wird präzisiert, dass es um die Ablehnung einer weiteren NATO-Erweiterung, die Rücknahme der „Bukarester Formel“, wonach „die Ukraine und Georgien NATO-Mitglieder werden“, und die Ablehnung der Errichtung von Militärstützpunkten auf dem Hoheitsgebiet ehemaliger Sowjet- und Nichtmitgliedstaaten, einschließlich der Nutzung ihrer Infrastruktur für militärische Aktivitäten, sowie die Rückführung der militärischen Fähigkeiten, einschließlich der Angriffsfähigkeit, und der NATO-Infrastruktur auf den Stand von 1997, als die Russland-NATO-Grundakte unterzeichnet wurde, geht.
„Wenn die USA und ihre Verbündeten nicht bereit sind, feste, rechtsverbindliche Garantien für unsere Sicherheit auszuhandeln, wird Russland gezwungen sein, zu reagieren, auch mit militärischen und technischen Maßnahmen“, heißt es in dem Text.
(
Übersetzt mit www.DeepL.com)

• Das gehört auch dazu (auch wenn es nicht im Fokus der Entwicklungen steht): Die Verstärkungen der Bundeswehr an der Ostflanke der NATO sind eingetroffen – sowohl die ersten zusätzlich zur NATO-Battlegroup in Litauen verlegten Soldatinnen und Soldaten als auch die Eurofighter der Luftwaffe, die das Air Policing der Allianz in Rumänien verstärken:

• Vor dem UN-Sicherheitsrat hat US-Außenminister Antony Blinken, wie angekündigt, ein Statement zur Lage in der Ukraine-Krise abgegeben und dabei auch den Vorwurf erhoben, auch ein von Russland vorgetäuschter Angriff mit Chemiewaffen sei denkbar. Aus Blinkens Statement:

We must address what Russia is doing right now to Ukraine.
Over the past months, without provocation or justification, Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders, in Russia, Belarus, occupied Crimea. Russia says it’s drawing down those forces. We do not see that happening on the ground. Our information indicates clearly that these forces – including ground troops, aircraft, ships – are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.
We don’t know precisely how things will play out, but here’s what the world can expect to see unfold. In fact, it’s unfolding right now, today, as Russia takes steps down the path to war and reissued the threat of military action.
First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack. This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian Government. We don’t know exactly the form it will take. It could be a fabricated so-called “terrorist” bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake – even a real – attack using chemical weapons. Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly, nor do I do take lightly based on my family history.
In the past few days, Russian media has already begun to spread some of these false alarms and claims, to maximize public outrage, to lay the groundwork for an invented justification for war. Today, that drumbeat has only intensified in Russia’s state-controlled media. We’ve heard some of these baseless allegations from Russian-backed speakers here today.
Second, in response to this manufactured provocation, the highest levels of the Russian Government may theatrically convene emergency meetings to address the so-called crisis. The government will issue proclamations declaring that Russia must respond to defend Russian citizens or ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Next, the attack is planned to begin. Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions.
After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Russia’s capital –Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people.
And conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to inflict upon the people of Ukraine. We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.
We’ve been warning the Ukrainian Government of all that is coming. And here today, we are laying it out in great detail, with the hope that by sharing what we know with the world, we can influence Russia to abandon the path of war and choose a different path while there’s still time.
Now, I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one. The information I’ve presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months. And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they have been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault.
It isn’t just us seeing this: Allies and partners see the same thing. And Russia hasn’t only been hearing from us. The international chorus has grown louder and louder.
If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong. That would be a far better outcome than the course we’re currently on. And we will gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us. …
I have no doubt that the response to my remarks here today will be more dismissals from the Russian Government about the United States stoking hysteria or that it has “no plans” to invade Ukraine.
So let me make this simple. The Russian Government can announce today – with no qualification, equivocation, or deflection – that Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly. State it plainly to the world. And then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their barracks and hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table.

(Ggf. weiter nach Entwicklung)