Die düstere Vorhersage der US-Geheimdienste, die nach einer deutlichen Verringerung der Truppen aus den USA und anderen NATO-Staaten ein rasches Wiedererstarken der Taliban und anderer Aufständischer befürchten, wurde hier in den Kommentaren schon erwähnt. Damit’s nicht nur aus dritter Hand ist, der Verweis auf den ersten Bericht dazu, aus der Washington Post:
A new American intelligence assessment on the Afghan war predicts that the gains the United States and its allies have made during the past three years are likely to have been significantly eroded by 2017, even if Washington leaves behind a few thousand troops and continues bankrolling the impoverished nation, according to officials familiar with the report. The National Intelligence Estimate, which includes input from the country’s 16 intelligence agencies, predicts that the Taliban and other power brokers will become increasingly influential as the United States winds down its longest war in history, according to officials who have read the classified report or received briefings on its conclusions. (…)
The report predicts that Afghanistan would likely descend into chaos quickly if Washington and Kabul don’t sign a security pact that would keep an international military contingent there beyond 2014 — a precondition for the delivery of billions of dollars in aid that the United States and its allies have pledged to spend in Afghanistan over the coming years.
Der ganze Bericht hier: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns
Nachtrag: Zu der Debatte passt die Analyse von Thomas Ruttig für das Afghanistan Analysts Network:
2013 has probably been the most violent year since 2001. (We do not have final data yet, as NATO stopped releasing information on a regular basis under the pretext that, with the transition of security responsibilities, this was the job of the Afghan government. and only incomplete data has been coming from that side.) The number of war dead has increased again, foremost among the civilian population. According to the UN, civilian casualties have increased by ten per cent (to 2,730 dead and 5,169 injured) in the first eleven months of 2013 compared to last year. Most are results of Taleban attacks. Moreover, the Taleban now seem to attack in larger groups more often. They have increasingly attempted to take over district centres, mainly in peripheral areas, and test the power of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) that now operate on their own in most of those areas (more detail in our analysis here). (Currently, 84,200 ISAF soldiers remain in the country, 60,000 of them Americans.) According to official Afghan sources, only five of the 416 district centres are under permanent Taleban control, but in many others government control barely reaches beyond the immediate centres. In the key Maiwand district in southern Afghanistan, for example (which is larger than Luxemburg), it ends two kilometres outside its central town, as the Wall Street Journal reported on 31 October. The situation is similar other kex districts, for example in Chahrdara in Kunduz province, from where the Taleban had been driven out almost completely in 2010. Since the additional US ‘surge’ forces left the area (the last German soldiers withdrew from Kunduz in October 2013), the Taleban are back in control almost everywhere. And that’s not to talk – yet – of human security.
(Foto: ISAFmedia via Flickr unter CC-BY-Lizenz)