Ukraine/Russland/NATO – der Sammler am 7. November 2022
Zum andauernden russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine ist eine aktuelle britische Analyse lesenswert (wenn auch nicht überraschend): Entscheidend ist eine weitere schnelle kurzfristige Unterstützung mit Flugabwehrsystemen und Munition dafür. Der Sammler am 7. November 2022:
• Das britische Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) legte am (heutigen) Montag eine Analyse von Luftkrieg und Luftbedrohungen in der Ukraine vor. Den ganzen – langen – Text gibt es hier; aus den zusammengefassten Schlussfolgerungen für eine weitere westliche Unterstützung der Ukraine in nächster Zeit:
Without air superiority, Russia’s attempts at strategic air attack have been limited to expensive cruise and ballistic missile barrages at a much more limited scale. These failed to achieve strategically decisive damage during the first seven months of the invasion. However, the latest iteration is a more focused and sustainable bombardment of the Ukrainian electricity grid, blending hundreds of cheap Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 loitering munitions against substations with continued use of cruise and ballistic missiles against larger targets.
The West must avoid complacency about the need to urgently bolster Ukrainian air-defence capacity. It is purely thanks to its failure to destroy Ukraine’s mobile SAM systems that Russia remains unable to effectively employ the potentially heavy and efficient aerial firepower of its fixed-wing bomber and multi-role fighter fleets to bombard Ukrainian strategic targets and frontline positions from medium altitude, as it did in Syria.
It follows that if Ukrainian SAMs are not resupplied with ammunition, and ultimately augmented and replaced with Western equivalents over time, the VKS will regain the ability to pose a major threat.
In the short term, Ukraine also needs large numbers of additional man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS) and radar-guided anti-aircraft guns, such as the Gepard, to sustain and increase its ability to intercept the Shahed-136s and protect its remaining power infrastructure and repairs to damaged facilities.
Ergänzung: Am Montagvormittag teilte der ukrainische Verteidigungsminister Oleksij Resnikow via Twitter mit, dass zugesagte Flugabwehrsysteme NASAMS (von den USA bzw. Norwegen) und Aspide (von Spanien) in der Ukraine eingetroffen seien:
• Das britische Intel Update:
On 03 November 2022, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, stated that Russia had lost over twice the number of aircraft in Ukraine than in the Soviet-Afghan War. This amounts to 278 aircraft lost in Ukraine compared to 119 in Afghanistan.
Whilst we cannot independently verify these figures, Russia’s continued lack of air superiority is likely exacerbated by poor training, loss of experienced crews, and heightened risks of conducting close air support in dense air defence zones.
This is unlikely to change in the next few months. Russia’s aircraft losses likely significantly outstrip their capacity to manufacture new airframes. The time required for the training of competent pilots further reduces Russia’s ability to regenerate combat air capability.
• Das Morgenbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update of General Staff of the UAF regarding the russian invasion as of 06:00,on November 7, 2022
The two-hundred-fifty-seventh (257) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
The enemy is trying to keep the temporarily captured territories, concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces in certain areas. Conducts offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.
Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defence Forces have repelled attacks by occupiers in the areas of Yampil, Andriivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Pavlivka, Vodyane, Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk oblast and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk oblast.
During the past day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 24 air strikes, carried out more than 55 MLRS attacks.
Areas of 30 settlements in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kherson oblasts were hit by enemy attacks.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
The enemy shelled in other directions:
in the Siversky direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hai of the Chernihiv oblast and Stukalivka, Popivka and Vorozhba of the Sumy oblast. In addition, the occupiers used attack UAVs;
in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from tanks and the entire range of artillery in the areas of Novoselivske, Myasozharivka, Vovchansk, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Ohirtseve and Strilecha settlements;
in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Serebryanka, Nevske, Makiivka, Bilohorivka, Ploshchanka, Spirne and Verkhnyokamianske settlements;
in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Opytne, Mayorsk, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka and Zelenopillya settlements;
in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar and Opytne settlements;
in the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia directions – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hulyaipole, Hulyaipilske, Olhivske, Dorozhnyanka, Novopil, Shcherbaky, Novodanilivka, Vremivka and Pavlivka;
in the Southern Buh region – from tanks and artillery of various types, in the areas of Blahodatne, Davidiv Brid, Dudchany, Myrne, Nova Kamianka and Pravdyne settlements. In addition, the enemy continued to conduct aerial reconnaissance, actively using UAVs. Made more than 20 flies.
The russian occupying forces continue to grossly violate the laws and customs of warfare against the civilian population. The search for subversive groups and fire adjusters continues in Kakhovka settlement of Kherson oblast. Detainees are taken to Hornostaivka and under torture „beat out“ the shows. Similar measures are taking place in Borivske and Shchedryshcheve settlements of the Luhansk oblast: mass searches, seizing of mobile phones, kidnapping of people who are taken to an unknown destination.
In Kherson, the occupiers, disguised in civilian clothes, occupy the premises of civilians and strengthen positions inside for conducting street battles. At the same time, ussian propagandist journalists are planning to shoot videos in the city on the topic of the alleged destruction of the civilian population by the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
According to the updated information, the defeat of the enemy in the previous days has been confirmed. So, in the settlement of Horlivka, Donetsk oblast, an attack was made on the area where the enemy’s equipment was concentrated. 5 combat vehicles were destroyed, 4 more were damaged. In the area of the settlement of Mayorsk, the daily losses of the enemy are up to 30 people killed and more than 120 wounded of various degrees of severity. In the settlement of Lysychansk, a unit of the Akhmat battalion was damaged. The occupiers lost more than 30 killed and up to 15 wounded. The real number of dead is carefully concealed by the enemy.
During the past day, the aviation of the Defence Forces of Ukraine struck the enemy 22 times. 20 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as 2 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft defence equipment, were affected. Our air defence units shot down 5 enemy UAVs.
Over the past day, soldiers of the Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit 2 control points, 8 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, an ammunition depot, a radio electronic warfare station and other important military objects of the enemy.
• Das Briefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (7 November 2022)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, 2 enemy battalion tactical groups, supported by foreign mercenaries, had been conducting offensive operations towards Nizhnyaya Duvanka and Svatovo (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The offensive has been halted by Army Aviation, artillery fire, and intensive action of Russian forces.
Up to 100 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, 2 tanks, 5 armoured fighting vehicles, and 5 pickups have been eliminated.
In Krasny Liman direction, 2 enemy battalion tactical groups attempted to launch an offensive towards Ploshchanka and Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
All the attacks have been repelled.
Comprehensive fire attack and intensive action of Russian forces have resulted in causing casualties of over 120 Ukrainian personnel killed and up to 130 wounded, 3 tanks, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, and 5 motor vehicles.
In Nikolayev–Krivoy Rog direction, Russian units, supported by artillery, have repelled an offensive of a battalion tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Dudchany, Novaya Kamenka, Belogorka (Kherson region).
The enemy has been driven back to its initial positions.
Over 110 Ukrainian personnel, 11 armoured fighting vehicles, and 13 motor vehicles have been eliminated.
Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery have neutralised 7 command posts near Ivanovka, Krakhmalnoye (Kharkov region), Vodyanoye, Pavlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Novaya Kamenka, Davydov Brod, Belogorka (Kherson region), as well as 72 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 186 areas.
2 ordnance depots have been destroyed near Belogorye and Kushchovoye (Zaporozhye region), as well as 1 depot of fuel for AFU hardware near Galitsinovo (Nikolayev region).
2 radars of Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile systems have been destroyed near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Volnyansk (Zaporozhye region).
Moreover, 1 self-propelled fire unit of Ukrainian Buk-M1 air defence missile system has been destroyed near Novosyolka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Air defence facilities have shot down 1 Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Novaya Kamenka (Kherson region).
In addition, 6 unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed near Berestovoye, Yegorovka, Yevgenovka and Valeryanovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Furthermore, 14 projectiles of HIMARS and Olkha multiple-launch rocket systems have been intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka, Otradokamenka, Korsunka (Kherson region), Starognatovka, Gruzsko-Lomovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Donetsk.
In total, 331 airplanes and 170 helicopters, 2,458 unmanned aerial vehicles, 387 air defence missile systems, 6,421 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 884 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,562 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 7,109 units of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Kiev regime continued its provocations aimed at creating a possible technological disaster at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
Over the past 24 hours, artillery units of the AFU have launched 7 large-calibre projectiles at the industrial area of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
Ukrainian artillery had been conducting the shelling from the AFU-controlled area of Vysshetarasovka (Dnepropetrovsk region).
The hostile battery has been neutralised by Russian artillery’s couterattack.
The radiation environment at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant remains normal.
• Das Abendbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 18:00, on November 7, 2022
The two hundred fifty-seventh (257) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
The enemy is trying to keep the temporarily captured territories, concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces in certain areas. Conducts offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.
The enemy is shelling units of the Defense Forces along the contact line, carrying out border fortification equipment in separate directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance.
It continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian homes in violation of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war.
During the day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 12 air strikes, carried out more than 14 MLRS attacks.
Areas of about 10 settlements of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson oblasts were hit by the russian occupiers.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, providing it with military infrastructure, territory and airspace. The transfer of units of the armed forces of the russian federation to the territory of the republic of belarus to create a joint russian-belarusian group of troops is underway.
There is still a threat of enemy strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus.
The enemy shelled in other directions:
in the Slobozhansky direction – from tanks, mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Uda, Vysoka Yaruga, Strilecha, Ohirtseve, Hatishche, Starytsa, Vovchansk, Dvorichanske, Chuhunivka, and Dvorichna;
on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Krokhmalne, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Andriivka, Nevske, Serebryanka, Verkhnyokamianske and Spirne;
in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Mayorsk, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka and Mayorsk;
in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and the entire spectrum of artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Heorgiivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka and Elyzavetivka settlements;
in the Novopavlivsk direction – from tanks and various caliber artillery, in the areas of Vugledar, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novosilka, and Novopol;
in the Zaporizhzhia direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of settlements of Olhivske, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnianka, Hulyaipilske, Charivne and Novodanylivka.
In the direction of Yuzhnobuzka, settlements near the contact line are subjected to shelling from the entire spectrum of artillery. In particular, Illinka from the Dnipropetrovsk region was hit by fire from an anti-aircraft missile.
The russian occupiers continue to forcibly remove civilians from the temporarily occupied Kherson region to the territory of the russian federation. Thus, according to the available information, about a hundred children with disabilities were taken out of the psychoneurological boarding house in Dnipryany, Kakhovsky district. The children and staff of the Oleshkiv Children’s Boarding Home are being prepared for the forced „evacuation“ to the Moscow region. Patients of a boarding house for the elderly have been relocated from the city of Kakhovka. The occupiers stationed personnel on the territory of this facility.
The occupying authorities of the Kherson oblast, in order to force them to leave the region, are taking measures to artificially create unacceptable living conditions for local residents, disconnecting electricity and communication.
russian servicemen do not stop looting and robbing the local population and infrastructure facilities, the export of material resources, food products and means of transportation to the territory of the russian federation continues.
The enemy continues to suffer losses. According to detailed information, on the night of November 6 of this year, the fuel reserves of the occupiers were destroyed in the city of Hola Prystan.
During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the enemy 9 times. 6 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, as well as 3 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft defenses, were affected. Air defense units shot down an enemy Su-25 aircraft.
Soldiers of the Ukrainian missile forces and artillery during the current day hit 4 control points, 2 areas of concentration of manpower and anti-aircraft weapons, and the ammunition depot of the occupiers.
Eine Frage in die Runde
Was sind denn 500 , Grenzschutzfahrzeuge, die nun aus Deutscher Instrustrieproduktion an die Ukraine geliefert werden.?
22 sind schon geliefert.
Ich lese hier ständig Zahlen zu “neutralisierten” Waffen und Soldaten aus den Briefings der jeweiligen Seiten.
Gibt es eigentlich irgendwelche seriösen Schätzungen zu Toten – Kämpfenden und Zivilisten – in Folge des Krieges seit Kriegsbeginn, auf beiden Seiten? Im Vergleich zu anderen Konfliktherden der letzten Jahrzehnte, sind wir hier doch verhältnismäßig nah dran und telekommunikatiknstechnisch sieht es doch auch viel besser aus.
@T5:
Meine Einschätzung: Da gab es im Sommer einmal einen russischen Leak, ich meine es geschah durch das Nawalny-Netzwerk, worin die Zahl der Gefallenen angegeben war, für die Rusland an Angehörige Entschädigungen/Renten zahlt. Und diese Zahl lag unterhalb der entsprechenden Angabe der russischen Gefallenen durch die Ukraine, aber nach meiner Erinnerung etwa bei 70% der ukrainischen Zahl.
Wenn man nun annimmt, dass nicht jeder Gefallene eine Entschädigungszahlung auslöst, weil nicht jeder ausreichend nahe Verwandte und Ehegatten hinterläßt, und wenn man weiter annimmt, dass die russische Zahl auf deutlich älteren Daten aufbaut als die ukrainische, weil für die Zahlung der Entschädigung ein Zeit beanspruchendes Verfahren abgewickelt werden muß, für das „Leichenzählen“ aber nicht, so bestätigt für mich die russische Zahl die offiziellen Angaben Kiews mit ausreichender Genauigkeit.
@T5
Laut Selenski sind es seit einigen Wochen etwa 1000 ukr. Eingezogene täglich?
@ T5:
Am 18.3. hat minusrus.com unter Berufung auf ukrainische Angaben 14.200 Tote und 42.600 Verwundete gelistet http://web.archive.org/web/20220319032954/https://www.minusrus.com/en . Selenskyj hat am 20.3. ebenfalls 14.000 genannt https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
Am 21.3. hat die Komsomolskaja Prawda (größte Boulevardzeitung Russlands) diesen Zahlen eigene gegenübergestellt, unter Berufung aufs russische Verteidigungsministerium: 9861 Tote und 16.153 Verwundete. Diese Angaben waren nur kurz auf der Webseite zu sehen, Archiv: https://archive.ph/f0A2Y bzw. https://web.archive.org/web/20220321121337/https://www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/ . Mediazona wertet russische Todesanzeigen aus, diese Anzahl ist deutlich geringer: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng .
Meine persönliche Einschützung ist, dass man von den ukrainischen Angaben über russische Tote 15-20 % abziehen kann, aber nicht mehr. Auf der ukrainischen Seite werden die Zahlen strikt geheimgehalten und ein Projekt wie von Mediazona ist mir nicht bekannt.
@““““““““““Reporter““““““““““
Was meinen Sie? 1000 Gefallene seitens Ukraine die sich so auf „Eingezogene“ verteilen? *Quelle?*
I call bullshit.
@ T5
„Gibt es eigentlich irgendwelche seriösen Schätzungen zu Toten – Kämpfenden und Zivilisten – in Folge des Krieges seit Kriegsbeginn, auf beiden Seiten?“
Nein. Und die wird es auch noch längere Zeit nicht geben.
Es ist einfach die Frage, was wahrscheinlicher ist:
a.) Es sind keine seriösen, sondern von propagandistischen Interessen geleitet über- oder untertriebene Zahlen, auf die keinerlei Verlass ist.
b.) Das hier ist buchstäblich der erste Krieg in der Geschichte der Menschheit, bei dem das nicht so ist und eine der Seiten realistische Verlustzahlen des Gegners veröffentlicht.
Sie können das für sich selber entscheiden.
Aber die Antwort ist a.)
@Harry Tuttle:
Selensky hatte allerdings durchaus über den Sommer angaben zu eigenen Verlusten gemacht. Also komplette Geheimhaltung gibt es nicht. Gibt auch entsprechende Portale, die jeden Tag Bilder mit Namen von Gefallenen Ukrainern veröffentlichen.
Das Bildmaterial was es gibt spricht allerdings schlicht für viel höhere russische Verluste, locker 3-4 faches der ukrainischen.
@Observer22
https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/official-up-to-1000-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-or-injured-daily-amid-heavy-fighting
[Sie legen es ja immer noch drauf an. Also: @Observer22 hat nach der Quelle für die Behauptung von 1.000 Gefallenen pro Tag gefragt. Sie posten zusammenhanglos einen Link vom Juni (!), in dem außerdem von 1.000 „casualties“ die Rede ist, also Gefallene UND Verwundete. Noch dazu nicht mal den Original-Link. Ich denke, Sie halten sich künftig lieber raus. T.W.]