Das Institute for the Study of War hat am (heutigen) Dienstag ein Lagebild für Afghanistan veröffentlicht, und es sieht nicht gut aus. Die Regionen, die nach Einschätzung des Think Tanks in Washington unter Taliban-Kontrolle stehen, gibt es überwiegend im Süden des Landes, aber auch im Norden (der angesichts des deutschen Engagements hier besonders im Mittelpunkt des Interesses steht). Neben den Taliban spielen aber auch die örtlichen Machthaber eine Rolle – und das nicht unbedingt im Sinne der Regierung in Kabul.
In Ergänzung zur Karte oben (Klick führt auf größere Darstellung) aus dem Threat Assessment:
The ANSF is unprepared to counter the Taliban militants’ summer campaign. Northern warlords will take advantage of Taliban militants’ gains to establish themselves as security providers and gain leverage against the fragile National Unity Government.(…)
Northern warlords and political opposition groups are increasing pressure on the fragile National Unity Government in the face of these security challenges, hindering the administration’s ability to respond to insurgent offensives.
Northern warlords are taking advantage of this pressure to extract concessions. General Atta Noor and General Abdul Rashid Dostum preemptively activated their competing personal militias in Balkh, Faryab, and Jowzjan Provinces in late February and early March in order to counter the Taliban militants’ summer campaign. Atta and Dostum seek to establish themselves as leading security providers, challenging national institutions and one another. Political opposition groups like the Afghanistan Protection and Stability Council (APSC) and the newly formed National Solidarity parliamentary bloc continue to criticize the National Unity Government for its inability to provide security or enact electoral reforms, pressuring the Ghani-Abdullah administration. President Ashraf Ghani has responded to this criticism by dismissing several significant government officials in late March in a struggle over cabinet composition and electoral reform with CEO and rival Abdullah Abdullah. Atta is Abdullah Abdullah’s primary backer, and his saber rattling is aimed at President Ghani. Dostum, the sitting First Vice President, recently reconciled with Ashraf Ghani and returned to participating actively in government. He has mobilized to counter Atta, as well as the Taliban.
Die Namen Atta Noor, Gouverneur der Provinz Balkh, und Rashid Dostum in dem genannten Zusammenhang sollten vielleicht auch in Berlin die Aufmerksamkeit für diese Lageeinschätzung sichern. Schließlich sind in Masar-i-Scharif, der Hauptstadt der Provinz Balkh, fast 800 deutsche Soldaten stationiert.
Und passend dazu die Meldung zum Beginn der Frühjahrsoffensive der Taliban, hier vom Wall Street Journal:
The Taliban in Afghanistan declared the start of their fighting season on Tuesday, vowing to take control of more territory and launch large-scale attacks against the Kabul government and its foreign allies, including the U.S. (…)
The proclamation has become an annual rite for the Islamist movement and usually heralds an increase in violence. The declaration coincides with the onset of spring, when snow melts and mountain passes open, enabling the group’s fighters to move more freely in many parts of the country.
It will be the first offensive since last summer’s disclosure that Taliban founder and spiritual leader Mullah Mohammad Omar had died two years earlier. In their statement on Tuesday, the Islamist movement said it had named the current fighting season “Operation Omari” in their late leader’s honor.
Nachtrag 14. April – eine aktuelle Meldung aus der Provinz Takhar, nebenan von Kundus:
The highway police chief for northern Kunduz was killed in an ambush by insurgents on Wednesday morning, local officials confirmed.
Qahar Khorbabi, the highway police chief, died along with seven of his bodyguards when insurgents opened fire on them while they were driving through northern Takhar province.
The incident took place in Farkhar district and after Khorbabi left home, in Takhar, for his office in Kunduz, said Khalil Asil, a spokesman for the provincial governor.
(Karte mit freundlicher Genehmigung des Institute for the Study of War)