Ukraine/Russland/NATO – der Sammler am 19. Oktober 2022
Im andauernden russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine evakuieren die russischen Besatzungsbehörden die besetzte Stadt Kherson. Russland verhängt das Kriegsrecht über die annektierten Regionen der Ukraine – und erlässt Einschränkungen für Regionen in Russland selbst. Der Sammler am 19. Oktober 2022:
• Offensichtlich aus Furcht vor einem Vorstoss der ukrainischen Streitkräfte haben die russischen Besatzungskräfte damit begonnen, die Stadt Kherson im Süden der Ukraine zu räumen. Aus der Übersicht der New York Times:
Russian occupation officials were moving civilians out of Kherson on Wednesday, another sign that Moscow’s hold on the strategic southern Ukrainian city was slipping, as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia sought to reassert control over that and other occupied regions by declaring martial law. (…)
As Russian proxy officials in Kherson said they would move as many as 60,000 civilians to the eastern side of the Dnipro River and shift its civilian administration there, they appeared to be girding for a battle for control of the region. Amid a weekslong Ukrainian counteroffensive, the pro-Kremlin leader in Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, said the relocations would protect civilians and help Russian forces fortify defenses to “repel any attack.”
Der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin verhängte über die vier von Russland annektierten Regionen der Ukraine, darunter auch Kherson, das Kriegsrecht. Zugleich wurde eine Vorstufe in russischen Regionen eingeführt.
• Israel bleibt bei seiner Haltung, der Ukraine keine Waffen zu liefern – die Regierung in Kiew hatte schon länger danach gefragt, in den vergangenen Tagen insbesondere nach Flugabwehrsystemen. Die unveränderte Ablehnung machte der israelische Verteidigungsminister Benny Gantz im Gespräch mit EU-Botschaftern deutlich, wie u.a. die Jerusalem Post berichtet:
Israel has offered to help Ukraine develop an early-warning system but will not provide weapons systems, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Wednesday.
„Our policy vis-à-vis Ukraine will not change,” he said. “We will continue to support and stand with the West. We will not provide weapons systems. We have asked the Ukrainians to share information regarding their needs and have offered to assist in developing a life-saving, early-warning system.”
Die Haltung Israels ist nicht zuletzt dadurch bestimmt, dass das Land auf die Zusammenarbeit mit Russland angewiesen ist: Bei Einsätzen israelischer Kampfjets in Syrien droht den Piloten Gefahr durch einen möglichen Abschuss durch die dort stationierten russischen Luftverteidigungssysteme.
• Das britische Intel Update:
Eight months into the invasion, major elements of Russia’s military leadership are increasingly dysfunctional. At the tactical level, there is almost certainly a worsening shortage of capable Russian junior officers to organise and lead newly mobilised reservists.
Eyewitness testimony suggests that the shooting of 11 Russian soldiers near Belgorod by a fellow recruit on 15 October 2022 occurred after an officer’s abusive comments towards ethnic minority recruits.
Poor lower-level leadership is likely worsening the low morale and poor unit cohesion in many parts of the Russian force.
Four of the five generals with direct operational command of elements of the invasion in February 2022 have now been dismissed. Their replacements have so far done little to improve Russia’s battlefield performance.
The lack of command continuity will likely be more disruptive than in a Western military because under Russian doctrine the development of plans sits largely with the commander personally, rather than as a collective effort across a broader staff.
• Das Morgenbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 06:00, on October 19, 2022
The two hundred thirty-eighth (238) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
The enemy is trying to keep the temporarily captured territories, concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of the Defence Forces in certain directions, at the same time, it does not abandon attempts to conduct offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.
During the day, units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the Ohirtseve and Dvorichna settlements of the Kharkiv oblast; Bilohorivka in Luhansk oblast; Novokalynove, Mayorsk, Odradivka, New York, Novomykhailivka, Nevelske, Opytne and Maryinka of the Donetsk oblast.
The enemy is shelling the positions of our troops along the contact line, carrying out engineering equipment of defensive positions and lines in separate directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance. Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
During the day, the enemy launched 10 missile and 18 air strikes, carried out more than 76 MLRS attacks.
Areas of more than 10 settlements were hit by the enemy. Among them are Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kurakhove of the Donetsk oblast, Trykhaty of the Mykolaiv oblast and Mykolaiv.
For this, the enemy used cruise, aviation and anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, the occupiers used 14 Iranian-made Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles, 10 of which shot down units of the Defence Forces.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, the threat of missile and air strikes, as well as the launch of „Shahed-136“ attack UAVs from its territory remains.
The enemy fired in other directions:
in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, within the settlements of Hai of Chernihiv oblast and Yunakivka, Khotyn, Tovstodubov and Demchenkove of Sumy oblast;
in the Slobozhanskyi direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Vovchanski Khutory, Volokhivka, Hatyshche, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Starytsa, Strilecha and Khatne settlements;
in the Kupyansk direction – from tanks, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Berestove, Dvorichna, Hryanikyvka, Kamianka, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka and Stelmakhivka settlements;
in the Lyman direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Hrekivka, Zarichne, Novoyehorivka, Serebryanka, Terny, Torske and Yampolivka settlements;
in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Zvanivka, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, Opytne, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Spirne and Yakovlivka;
in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Mariinka and Novomykhailivka.
On the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia areas, the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Vremivka, Mykilske, Neskuchne, Pavlivka, Olhivske, Stepove and Prechystivka came under fire.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is trying to improve logistical support, is carrying out artillery fire in the areas of more than 20 settlements along the contact line. The infrastructure of Vyshchetarasivka, Dnipropetrovsk oblast, suffered the most from enemy fire.
The occupiers are taking measures to covertly move military equipment and personnel. For this purpose, in the settlements of Tavriysk and Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson oblast, the enemy is blocking the work of mobile operators and the Internet.
The invaders continue to destroy Ukrainian cultural heritage in the temporarily occupied territories, loot museums, burn Ukrainian literature and textbooks printed in Ukrainian.
According to the available information, there are significant problems in the russian federation with financial payments to military personnel participating in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Financial payments allowances for participation in hostilities are being delayed for this category. Relatives of the dead cannot receive the promised compensation.
Aviation of the Defence Forces of Ukraine carried out 24 strikes during the previous day. It was confirmed that 16 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, a support point, as well as 8 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems were hit. In addition, air defence units shot down 5 cruise missiles and a Su-25 aircraft.
Warriors of missile troops and artillery hit 4 control points, 5 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 2 air defence facilities and 1 – artillery, 2 ammunition warehouses, an electronic warfare station, as well as other military targets of the enemy.
• Das Briefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (19 October 2022)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In the past 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces have continued launching attacks by high-precision long-range air- and sea-based armament at the military control and energy systems of Ukraine. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.
The Russian troops delivered a fire strike against units of 14th and 92nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and foreign mercenaries close to the settlements of Petropavlovka, Peschanoye, and Berestovoye in Kharkov region.
More than 40 Ukrainian personnel, 4 armoured fighting vehicles, and three pickups were eliminated.
At Krasny Liman direction, the Russian troops successfully impeded the enemy’s efforts to cross the Zherebets River at night close to the settlements of Stelmakhovka, Rozovka, and Raygorodka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The Russian troops eliminated more than 30 Ukrainian personnel, three armored fighting vehicles, and two cars.
At Nikolayev–Krivoy Rog direction, the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted missile strikes to engage units of 60th Infantry Brigade and 35th Marine Infantry Brigade of the AFU, as well as units of Foreign Legion close to the city of Nikolayev and the settlements of Novovoskresenskoye, Bezymennoye, and Trifonovka (Kherson region).
In 24 hours, over 120 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, 8 armoured fighting vehicles, and 12 cars have been neutralised.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have engaged 7 command posts near the settlements of Metallovka, Dvurechnaya in Kharkov region, Ilyichovka, Toretsk, Yakovlevka, Podgornoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Gulyaypole (Zaporozhye region), as well as 64 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 156 concentration areas.
3 munition depots have been eliminated close to the settlements of Chervona Dolyna in Kharkov region, Novogrigorovka (Zaporozhye region), and Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev region).
2 launching ramps of S-300 Ukrainian air defence system have been destroyed near Kupyansk (Kharkov region) and Novoyelizavetovka (Odessa region).
Within the counterbattery warfare, 2 AFU artillery batteries have been neutralised near Glushovka (Kharkov region), as well as 1 U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS platoon near Drobyshevo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian air defence facilities have shot down 1 Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Trifonovka (Kherson region).
Moreover, 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to the settlements of Chaikino, Sukhanovo, and Kucherskoye (Kherson region), Novoselovka Staromayorskoye, Lugansk of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Popasnaya (Lugansk People’s Republic).
11 HIMARS and Olkha MLRS rounds were intercepted, as well as 8 HARM high-speed anti-radiation missiles close to the settlement of Kakhovka (Kherson region).
In total, 324 airplanes and 161 helicopters, 2,278 unmanned aerial vehicles, 383 anti-aircraft missile systems, 5,891 tanks and other armored fights vehicles, 873 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,489 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 6,652 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
The Kiev regime continues its provocations aimed at creating a possible technological disaster at Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
Today, around 4.00 am, the enemy, with forces of up to two companies, made another attempt to land troops on the left bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir and seize the territory of the nuclear power plant.
For the landing, the enemy involved 37 motor boats and cutters (12 heavy and 25 light types) with AFU servicemen.
The Russian troops took active actions when guarding the outer perimeter of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant to neutralise the enemy’s landing troops.
The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to more than 90 Ukrainian personnel and 14 motor boats. The rest of landing group were scattered by artillery fire in the water area of the Kakhovka Reservoir.
In addition, in 24 hours, the AFU artillery fired 13 shells at the northern outskirts of Energodar and the territory adjacent to the nuclear power plant.
The strikes were carried out from the area close to Marganets, Dnepropetrovsk region, controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The hostile firepower has been neutralised by Russian artillery’s counter-attack.
There are no casualties and destruction at the station. The radiation environment remains normal.
• Das Abendbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 18:00, on October 19, 2022
The two hundred thirty-eighth (238) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military large-scale invasion continues.
The enemy is trying to hold the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces in certain directions, at the same time, it does not stop trying to conduct offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.
The enemy is shelling the positions of our troops along the contact line, carrying out engineering equipment of defensive positions and lines in separate directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance. Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
During the current day, the enemy launched four missile and eleven air strikes, launched more than ten attacks from rocket salvo systems.
The enemy has once again launched a massive strike with cruise missiles and Iranian strike UAVs on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv oblasts. At night, the occupiers also attacked Uman, Cherkasy oblast, and Kobleve, Mykolaiv oblast, with five Iranian-made Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles. All of them were successfully shot down by the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine. During the day, the enemy used nine „Shahed-136“ attack UAVs from the territory of belarus. Eight of them were shot down.
The enemy shelled in other directions:
in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, within the boundaries of the settlements of Gai and Khrinivka of the Chernihiv oblast;
in the Slobozhansk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Vovchanski Khutory, Terny, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Strilecha and Khatne settlements;
in the Kupyansk direction – from barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Berestov, Dvorichna, Kamianka and Kislivka;
in the Lyman direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hrekivka, Hryanikyvka, Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Zarichne, Serebryanka, Terny, Torske and Yampolivka;
in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Mayorsk, New York, Opytne, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Spirne and Yakovlivka settlements;
in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Berdychi, Pervomaiske, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka settlements.
The enemy did not conduct active offensive actions in the Novopavlivskyi, Zaporizhzhia and Yuzhnobuzki directions. Fired in the areas of more than 45 settlements along the entire contact line.
The occupying leadership of the temporarily captured territory of the Zaporizhzhia region organized the so-called inventory of the housing stock and the „census“ of the population. The measures are carried out with the aim of finding and alienating the housing of local residents who have left the captured territories.
Replenishment of the losses of units of the russian occupation forces at the expense of prisoners caused additional problems to the command. Thus, recruited servicemen from prisons, after receiving weapons, leave their units and look for an opportunity to return to the territory of the russian federation. According to available information, after the damage to the warehouse with ammunition in the Kherson region on October 17 of this year, part of the unit involved in its protection was injured, and the rest managed to escape. rosguard units, under the guise of fighting subversive and intelligence groups, conduct activities to search for deserters.
The occupiers continue the practice of forcibly recruiting the local population to carry out fortification works in the area of the city of Kherson, allegedly from among curfew violators and citizens disloyal to the occupation authorities.
Aviation of the Defense Forces carried out ten strikes during the current day. Damage to six areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, as well as four positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems, was confirmed. Air defense units shot down four cruise missiles, one Ka-52 helicopter and thirteen „Shahed-136“ UAVs.
Soldiers of the missile troops and artillery hit three control points, four areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, an electronic warfare station, one bridge and one pontoon crossing of the enemy.
@Frank Drebin
„Ja, das glaube ich Ihnen. Aber genau diesen Zusammenhang gilt es fürs Problemverständnis zu verinnerlichen. Es liegt eigentlich auf der Hand.“
Dann erklären Sie es! Bedeutungsschwangeres Geraune ist kein Ersatz für Argumente.
„Es gibt auch keinen naturgegebenen oder logischen Zwang billige Drohnen mit ebenso billigen Abwehrmaßnahmen zu bekämpfen.“
Solange wir über wenige hundert Einheiten reden, die von Iran geliefert werden: D’accord. Sobald es um einige zehntausend geht, gibt es diesen logischen Zwang selbstverständlich. Wer abwartet, bis zehntausende geliefert werden, hat verloren.
„Akzeptieren Sie doch die vielen Abschüsse mal als positiven Fakt.“
Ich akzeptiere die wenigen Abschüsse als negativen Fakt.
Die iranischen Shahed folgen nicht der üblichen Logik militärischer Hardware. Sie sind Wegwerfartikel so ähnlich wie Mörsermunition. Man kann problemlos 10 oder 20 auf ein Ziel ansetzen und hat Erfolg, wenn eine durchkommt. Gegen diese Art von Produkt bedeutet jede Abschußquote unter 95% Versagen.
„Die Ukraine braucht mehr Exemplare der schon gelieferten westliche Systeme, keine Billiglösungen.“
Wäre Deutschland in der Lage, sämtliche jemals produzierten Gepard und alle in den nächsten 3 Jahren lieferbaren IRIS-T stante pede der Ukraine zur Verfügung zu stellen, könnten wir damit weniger als 1% der Ukraine schützen. Das wäre gar nicht so wenig, wenn Rußland militärische Ziele angriffe. Greift Rußland aber zivile Infrastruktur an, dann ist es ein Tröpfchen auf dem heißen Felsen.
Zu den iranischen Shahed und den Herausvorderungen für die ukrainischen Verteidiger im Felde:
‘We Heard It, We Saw It, Then We Opened Fire’
With an intense, hastily assembled effort, the Ukrainian military is pioneering successful techniques in the difficult art of anti-drone warfare.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/23/world/europe/ukraine-russia-drones-iran.html
Am Rande, zum uns begleitenden OSINT Thema:
Building An Open-Source Intelligence Buyer’s Club
“Get rid of the clowns. What use are they? They’ve got 40,000 people over there reading newspapers.”
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/building-an-open-source-intelligence-buyers-club/
Aki Peritz
October 20, 2022