Vor dem Treffen der Ukraine-Kontaktgruppe zur Unterstützung der Ukraine am (morgigen) Freitag auf dem US-Luftwaffenstützpunkt Ramstein in der Pfalz herrschte am (heutigen) Donnerstag hektische Betriebsamkeit: Zahlreiche europäische Länder sagten teils umfangreiche Waffenlieferungen zu. Die deutsche Haltung zur Abgabe von Leopard-Kampfpanzern blieb dagegen vorerst offen. Dazu und zum andauernden russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine der Sammler am 19. Januar 2023:
• Eine Ländergruppe mit Gorßbritannien als größtem Land an der Spitze – neben dem Vereinigten Königreich sind Dänemark, Estland, Lettland, Litauen, die Niederlande, Polen, Tschechien und die Slowakei beteiligt – sagte der Ukraine Unterstützung für das Ziel zu, russische Streitkräfte von ukrainischem Boden zu vertreiben und kündigte entsprechende Zusagen für das Treffen in Ramstein an. Aus der Tallinner Verpflichtung:
We the Defence Ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia met today, 19 January, to reaffirm our continued determination and resolve to supporting Ukraine in their heroic resistance against the illegal and unprovoked Russian aggression. (…)
We recognise that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have. Together we will continue supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. By bringing together Allies and partners, we are ensuring the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible. The new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defence, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.
Therefore, we commit to collectively pursuing delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defence, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defence. This substantial assistance to Ukraine comes from our own national stocks, and resources illustrating the mutual understanding of the severity of the situation and our commitment to urgently increase and accelerate support for Ukraine. Having made this “Tallinn Pledge”, we shall head to the Ukraine Defence Group meeting in Ramstein tomorrow 20 January and urge other Allies and partners to follow suit and contribute their own planned packages of support as soon as possible to ensure a Ukrainian battlefield victory in 2023.
In der gemeinsamen Erklärung werden auch bereits einige – nicht alle – konkrete Angaben zu geplanten Lieferungen gemacht; teilweise wurden die Pläne gesondert bekannt. Unter anderem will Dänemark 19 Caesar-Haubitzen aus französischer Produktion weitergeben, die gerade erst für die dänischen Streitkräfte bestellt wurden, wie die Agentur Ritzau berichtete:
Dänemark schickt Caesar-Haubitzen in die Ukraine, auf die die dänische Verteidigung seit Jahren gewartet hat. (…) „Wir standen in ständigem Kontakt mit den Ukrainern über die Caesar-Artillerie, und ich freue mich, dass wir nun eine breite Unterstützung des Parlaments erhalten haben, um sie für den Freiheitskampf der Ukraine zu spenden“, erklärte Verteidigungsminister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen nach einer Sitzung des Ausschusses für Außenpolitik in einer Pressemitteilung. Die Regierung habe beschlossen, alle 19 Haubitzen des Typs Caesar aus französischer Produktion zu spenden.
(Übersetzt mit deepl.com)
Großbritannien sagte neben den bereits angekündigten Challenger2-Kampfpanzern weitere Unterstützung zu, unter anderem 600 Brimstone-Flugkörper:
The United Kingdom’s accelerated package consists of a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks with armoured recovery and repair vehicles; AS90 self-propelled 155mm guns, while preserving their commitment in Estonia; hundreds more armoured and protected vehicles; a manoeuvre support package, including minefield breaching and bridging capabilities; dozens more un-crewed aerial systems to support Ukrainian artillery; another 100,000 artillery rounds; hundreds more sophisticated missiles including GMLRS rockets, Starstreak air defence missiles, and medium range air defence missiles; 600 Brimstone anti-tank munitions; an equipment support package of spares to refurbish up to a hundred Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles
Polen erneuerte in der Tallinner Erklärung seine Bereitschaft zur Lieferung von Leopard-Kampfpanzern:
Poland is ready to donate a company of Leopard 2 tanks with 1000 pieces of ammunition. Pending this, a wider coalition of Leopard 2 tanks donors will be established.
Allerdings ist unklar, ob das Land die – derzeit noch offene – Zustimmung Deutschlands zum Re-Export dieser Gefechtsfahrzeuge abwartet. Polens Premierminister Mateusz Morawiecki hatte gedroht, zur Not auch ohne deutsche Zustimmung zu liefern, wie Reuters berichtete:
Poland’s prime minister signalled that it could send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as part of a wider coalition even without Germany’s re-export approval, raising pressure on Berlin ahead of a crunch meeting of allies on more military aid for Kyiv. (…)
„Consent is of secondary importance here, we will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do what is needed ourselves,“ Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told private broadcaster Polsat News late on Wednesday.
Am Donnerstag war auch nach einem Besuch von US-Verteidigungsminister Lloyd Austin in Berlin zunächst unklar geblieben, ob die Bundesregierung bei der Haltung bleibt, es sollten keine Leopard-Panzer geliefert werden – oder nur dann, wenn auch die USA zur Lieferung ihrer Kampfpanzer vom Typ Abrams bereit wären.
Nachtrag: Der neue deutsche Verteidigungsminister bestritt in der ARD, dass es eine solche Verbindung gebe:
Lieferungen deutscher „Leopard“-Panzer an die Ukraine hängen nach Angaben des neuen Bundesverteidigungsministers Boris Pistorius nicht von gleichzeitigen Lieferungen amerikanischer Kampfpanzer an das Land ab. „Ein solches Junktim ist mit nicht bekannt“, sagt der SPD-Politiker im ARD-Brennpunkt.
Auf die Frage, ob Deutschland auch ohne Beteiligung der USA Kampfpanzer liefern werde, sagt er, dies erörtere Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz derzeit mit dem US-Präsidenten Joe Biden.
Und noch ein wichtiger Hinweis: Diese Tallinner Erklärung gibt es in der aus London veröffentlichten Fassung, s. oben, mit neun Staaten – und in einer vom estnischen Verteidigungsministerium veröffentlichten Fassung mit elf Staaten. Da sind dann auch Deutschland und Spanien dabei. Was das soll und was gilt, bleibt erstmal unklar.
Vorsorglich mal beide untereinander als Sicherheitskopie:
The Government today presented a large three-part support package to Ukraine. The package includes a procurement cooperation scheme, instructions to the Swedish Armed Forces to prepare the transfer of the Archer Artillery System, and the largest defence equipment package to date. This includes recoilless rifles with ammunition, anti-tank weapons, assault rifles, mine clearance equipment, Combat Vehicle 90 (CV90) with ammunition, and light anti-armour weapon Robot 57 (NLAW), worth SEK 4.3 billion.
• Der Außen- und der Verteidigungsminister der Ukraine riefen in einer gemeinsamen Erklärung die westlichen Unterstützernationen zu mehr Waffenlieferungen auf – und baten insbesondere die Länder mit Leopard-Kampfpanzern um Hilfe:
Joint statement by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba and the Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov regarding the urgency of strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities:
russia’s criminal war of aggression against Ukraine, which has been waged for almost a year, remains the most serious threat to the international security and the single unprecedented challenge to the international community since World War II.
This war poses a particularly acute danger for the Euro-Atlantic community considering russia’s overt goals to destroy the European security order and undermine viability of democracy as a form of social life. (…)
To date, a lot has been done to strengthen the defence potential of Ukraine. Our country is grateful to more than fifty partner states for their practical military assistance.
However, russia retains a substantial quantitative advantage in troops, weapons and military equipment. russian troops continue their offensive in eastern regions of Ukraine. The Kremlin is determined to further escalate hostilities. Prospects of russia’s attempt to take revenge for its failures in its war against Ukraine, including the threat of a new full-scale offensive by the russian forces, are very real.
That is why we appeal to all partner states that have already provided military assistance or are planning to provide it, with a call to considerably reinforce their practical contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and bring their assistance to a qualitatively new level.
Today, the improvement of the provision of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with modern armoured vehicles and increasing their fire and manoeuvrability capabilities with the help of Western tanks is one of the most pressing and urgent needs.
We welcome the bold and very timely decision of the United Kingdom to transfer the first squadron of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. However, it is not sufficient to achieve operational goals. Therefore, we are addressing our appeal to the states that have Leopard 2 tanks in service, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Turkey. We guarantee that we will use these weapons responsibly and exclusively for the purposes of protecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders.
• Das britische Intel Update:
Russia is likely considering deploying a small number of its new T-14 Armata main battle tanks in Ukraine.
In late December 2022, imagery showed T-14s on a training area in southern Russia: the site has been associated with pre-deployment activity for the Ukraine operation.
This followed pro-government Russia media outlets claiming T-14s were being prepared for deployment. However, it is unclear whether Russia has yet moved the type into Ukraine.
Any T-14 deployment is likely to be a high-risk decision for Russia. Eleven years in development, the programme has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems.
An additional challenge for Russia is adjusting its logistics chain to handle T-14 because it is larger and heavier than other Russian tanks.
If Russia deploys T-14, it will likely primarily be for propaganda purposes. Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat.
Situation update of General Staff of UAF regarding russian invasion as of 6.00 a.m., 19th January 2023
Day 330 of the russian aggression has begun.
Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the vicinities of Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast); Terny, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Soledar, Sil’, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Kurdyumivka, Vodyane, Mar’inka, Pobieda, and Paraskoviivka (Donetsk oblast).
At the same time, the enemy carried out 25x airstrikes and launched more than 85x MLRS attacks.
There is a threat of further air and missile strikes by the russian federation on civilian objects across Ukraine.
Volyn, Polissya, Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: no significant changes. No offensive groupings of the enemy were detected in the areas bordering Ukraine. Certain units of the armed forces of the russian federation and the republic of belarus continue to perform assigned tasks. The enemy demonstrates its presence in the close proximity to the national border of Ukraine. russian forces conducted mortar and artillery attacks on the vicinities of Buchka (Chernihiv oblast); Popovka (Sumy oblast); Budarky, Zemlianka, Hatyshche, Zelene, Vovchansk, Ternove, Krasne, Kam’yanka, Chugunivka, Novomlynsk, and Dvorichna (Kharkiv oblast).
Kup’yansk axis: the enemy shelled the vicinities of Kurylivka, Petropavlivka, Kislivka, Ivanivka, Krokhmalne, Senkivka, Berestovo, and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast); and Stelmakhivka (Luhansk oblast).
Lyman axis: the enemy shelled positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the vicinities of Druzhelyubivka (Kharkiv oblast); and Novoyehorivka, Nevs’ke, Chervonpopivka, and Dibrova (Luhansk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: the vicinities of 22x settlements suffered enemy artillery fire, including, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Mayorsk, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, and Druzhba (Donetsk oblast).
Avdiivka axis: Avdiivka, Vodyane, Nevels’ke, Pervomais’ke, Heorgiivka, Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) came under enemy fire.
Novopavlivka axis: the enemy again shelled Velika Novosilka, Zolota Niva and Vuhledar (Donetsk oblast).
Zaporizhzhia axis: 24x settlements suffered artillery attacks, including, Vremivka and Novopil (Donetsk oblast); Poltavka, Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Shcherbaki, Stepove, Kam’yans’ke and Plavni (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
Kherson axis: the occupiers continue to terrorize civilian population. The vicinities of more than 20x settlements were shelled by MLRS and barrel artillery. Among them are Antonivka, Berehove, Vesele, Kachkarivka, Yantarne and the city of Kherson. The attacks caused casualties among civilian population.
During the past day, Ukrainian Air Force delivered 13x air strikes on enemy concentration areas and 3x air strikes on russian anti-aircraft missile systems.
1x russian Ka-52 attack helicopter and “Merlin-VR” UAV were shot down.
Ukrainian missile and artillery troops attacked 3x command posts, 5x concentrations of russian troops, 1x ammunition depot, and 2x other important enemy targets.
• Das Briefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (19 January 2023)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, Army Aviation and artillery of the Western Military District have neutralised the units from 14th and 92nd mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Ivanovka (Kharkov region).
Over 30 Ukrainian personnel, 1 armoured fighting vehicle, 2 motor vehicles, and 2 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers have been eliminated.
In Krasny Liman direction, the strikes launched by aviation and artillery of the Central Military District have resulted in the neutralisation of the units from 95th Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU near Serebryanka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and 24th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Novovodyanoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
1 AFU ordnance depot has been destroyed near Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy has lost over 60 Ukrainian personnel, 1 armoured personnel carrier, 3 pickups, and 1 D-20 howitzer.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Southern Military District continued their successful offensive operations, and neutralised the enemy near Galitsynovka, Krasnogorovka, and Nevelskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Up to 80 Ukrainian personnel, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, 3 French-manufactured Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, 1 U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery system, 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and 2 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems have been eliminated.
1 AFU ordnance depot, and 1 U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery warfare radar have been destroyed near Karlovka and Kurakhova (Donetsk People’s Republc), respectively.
In South Donetsk direction, the offensive operations of units from the Eastern Military District have resulted in taking more advantageous lines, as well as elimination of over 30 Ukrainian personnel, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, and 3 pickups.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 67 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 98 areas.
Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 1 Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Poltavka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Air defence facilities have destroyed five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Zhitlovka, Chervonopopovka, and Kremennaya (Lugansk People’s Republic).
In total, 374 airplanes and 200 helicopters, 2,903 unmanned aerial vehicles, 401 air defence missile systems, 7,569 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 985 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,865 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,113 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Situation update of General Staff of UAF regarding russian invasion as of 6 p.m., January 19, 2023
Day 330 of the russian full-scale invasion continues.
During the day of January 19, the adversary launched 4x missile attacks, including 2x on the civilian infrastructure of Matviivka (Zaporizhzhia oblast), and 15x air strikes. In addition, the invaders launched more than 30x MLRS attacks.
The threat of occupants’ air and missile strikes across Ukraine remains high.
Volyn, Polissya, Sivershchyna, and Slobozhanshchyna axes: no offensive groups of the adversary were found. However, joint exercises of the russian Aerospace Forces and the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the republic of belarus are ongoing in the territory of the republic of belarus. The enemy shelled the vicinities of Buchky (Chernihiv oblast), Popivka (Sumy oblast), Alisivka, Strilecha, Zelene, Ternova, Starytsya, Ohirtseve, Vovchans’k, Bochkove, Volokhivka, Chuhunivka, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, and Kup’yans’k (Kharkiv oblast) with artillery.
Kup’yans’k axis: the vicinities of settlements of Kurylivka, Ivanivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, and Pershotravneve (Kharkiv oblast), as well as Novoselivs’ke (Luhansk oblast) were shelled.
Lyman axis: the enemy employed all available firepower for shelling of the vicinities of Novojehorivka, Ploschanka, Nevs’ke, Chervonopopivka, Kreminna, and Serebryanske forestry (Luhansk oblast).
Bakhmut axis: Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Soledar, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Zalizne, and Vesele (Donetsk oblast) were shelled.
Avdiivka axis: Kostyantynivka, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomais’ke, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Mar’inka, Pobjeda, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) came under enemy fire.
Novopavlivka axis: the adversary fired tanks and all types of artillery at the vicinities of settlements of Mykil’s’ki Dachi, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Velyka Novosilka, and Neskuchne (Donetsk oblast).
Zaporizhzhia axis: more than 15x settlements were hit by tank, mortar, and artillery fire, including Malynivka (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Hulyaipole, Bilohir’ya, Orikhiv, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Mali Shcherbaky, and Kam’yans’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
Kherson axis: the occupant forces shelled Novooleksandrivka, Havrylivka, Kachkarivka, Mylove, Respublikanets’, Odradokam’yanka, Ivanivka, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne, Antonivka, and Kherson.
The adversary continues to suffer significant casualties. In particular, a local hospital in Novosvitlivka (Luhansk oblast) has more than 200x wounded from among the recently forcibly mobilized residents of the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk oblast.
During the day of January 19, Ukrainian Air Force launched 21x air strikes on enemy concentrations, and 6x on the positions of their anti-aircraft missile systems.
In the meantime, Ukrainian missile and artillery troops hit 6x command posts, 7x concentrations of the enemy, and 1x ammunition depot of the occupiers.