Ukraine/Russland/NATO – der Sammler am 12. September 2022
Zum andauernden russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine der – verspätete – Sammler am 12. September 2022. Die schnellen, erfolgreichen ukrainischen Vorstöße der vergangenen Tage und am Montag finden sich im ukrainischen Lagebriefing nur sehr nüchtern abgehandelt; im russischen gar nicht.
• Wie schon am Wochenende gab es auch am (heutigen) Montag fast im Stundentakt Meldungen über weitere Erfolge der ukrainischen Streitkräfte – was dennoch nicht unproblematisch ist, wie Verteidigungsminister Oleksij Resnikow warnte:
Ukraine’s rapid offensive in the northeast has recaptured far more territory than it had expected and it needs to consolidate those gains, the country’s defense minister said.
The offensive has dramatically altered the battlefield, 200 days after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, and allowed the government in Kyiv to seize the initiative, though Oleksii Reznikov, the defense minister, said that this comes with risks.
“A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper published on Monday.
• Das britische Intel Update:
In the face of Ukrainian advances, Russia has likely ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of occupied Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River.
Isolated pockets of resistance remain in this sector, but since Wednesday, Ukraine has recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London.
In the south, near Kherson, Russia is likely struggling to bring sufficient reserves forward across the Dnipro River to the front line.
An improvised floating bridge Russia started over two weeks ago remains incomplete; Ukrainian long-range artillery is now probably hitting crossings of the Dnipro so frequently that Russia cannot carry out repairs to damaged road bridges.
The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for Russia’s overall operational design. The majority of the force in Ukraine is highly likely being forced to prioritise emergency defensive actions.
The already limited trust deployed troops have in Russia’s senior military leadership is likely to deteriorate further.
• Das Morgenbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 06:00, on September 12, 2022
The two hundred-first (201) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
The enemy is concentrating its efforts on establishing control over the territory of the Donetsk oblast, holding the temporarily captured territories and disrupting the offensive of our troops in certain directions.
The enemy continues to attack our positions by fire, conducts aerial reconnaissance and tries to take measures to restore the lost position.
A further threat of air and missile strikes remains on the entire territory of Ukraine. Over the past day, the enemy launched 18 missile and 39 air strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. More than 30 settlements were affected, in particular, Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Velykomykhayilivka. The russians committed another terrorist act – they launched a missile attack on the Kharkiv Thermal Power Plant, an object of the city’s critical infrastructure. As a result, power was partially cut off in several oblasts.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
In other directions, the enemy fired at military and civilian infrastructure from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, namely:
in the Siversky direction – near Kindrativka, Sumy oblast;
in the Kharkiv direction – the settlements of Kostyantynivka, Udy;
the enemy did not fire in the Slovyansk direction;
in the Kramatorsk direction – in the areas of Tetyanivka, Donetske, Raihorodok, Kryva Luka, Verkhnokamiyanske and Spirne settlements;
in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of the settlements of Vesele, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Mykolaivka Druha, Zaitseve;
Karlivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka were shelled in the Avdiyivka direction;
in the Novopavlivskyi direction – fire activity in the Prechystivka, Velykiy Novosilky, Bohoyavlenka, Neskuchne and Mykilske districts;
in the Zaporizhzhya direction – near Novosilka, Vremivka, Novopole, Novoandriyivka, Poltavka, Hulyaipole and Zaliznychne
In the direction of Yuzhno-Buzka, the areas of Novovoznesensk, Bila Krynytsia, Osokorivka, Velike Artakove, Sukhy Stavok, Kostromka, Partizanske, Bezimenne, Blagodativka, Ivanivka, Zarichne, Bilogirka and Myrne settlements were hit by shelling.
Defense forces repelled enemy attacks near Mayorsk and Krasnohorivka. Fighting continues in Mykolayivka Druha and Zaytseve areas.
After the successful actions carried out by the Defense Forces in the Kherson direction, the enemy suffered significant losses in manpower. According to available information, the 810th separate brigade of marines (point of permanent deployment in the city of Sevastopol) lost almost 85% of its personnel. The rest of the servicemen have an extremely low morale and psychological state, they massively refuse to return to the combat zone.
The liberation of settlements from the russian invaders in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions continues. As previously reported, during the retreat, russian troops quickly abandon their positions and flee deep into the temporarily occupied territories or into the territory of the russian federation. This trend persists. So, over the past day, the occupiers have taken away property and vehicles looted from local residents from Velikiy Burluk and Dvorichna settlements of Kharkiv oblast.
In the Luhansk region, the russian military and their families left the town of Svatove, only the soldiers of the so-called „people’s militia“ from among the local residents remained.
In general, during the past day, the Defense Forces managed to dislodge the enemy from more than twenty settlements. Taking them under full control and stabilization measures are being carried out.
Aviation of the Defense Forces made eight strikes – a platoon stronghold, six areas of concentration of enemy manpower and military equipment, as well as one anti-aircraft missile system were hit.
One UAV of the Orlan-10 type was destroyed, one X-59 guided missile, four Kalibr-type sea-based guided missiles and five X-101 air-based guided missiles were shot down. Enemy manpower losses are being refined.
Missile troops and artillery of land troops continue to perform tasks of counter-battery combat, fire damage to manpower and combat equipment, disruption of the enemy’s command and control system and logistical support, as well as support of counteroffensive actions of our troops.
• Das Briefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (September 12, 2022)
Russian Aerospace Forces, missile troops and artillery continue launching high-precision attacks at AFU units and reserve forces in Kharkov region.
Manpower and military equipment of Kraken nationalist group, 113th Territorial Defence Brigade and 93rd Mechanised Brigade have been neutralised near Kupyansk and Izyum. The enemy has lost up to 250 servicemen and over 20 units of military equipment.
High-precision missile attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the units from 63rd Mechanised and 46th Airmobile brigades at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction near Kostromka and Belogorka (Kherson region).
1 munitions depot that storaged 45 thousand tonnes of AFU munitions has been destroyed near Voznesensk (Nikolayev region).
Kiev regime has lost a total of over 300 servicemen dead and up to 1,000 wounded over the past 24 hours at the abovementioned operational direction.
Russian Aerospace Forces have launched a high-precision attack at a provisional base of a mechanised infantry brigade from AFU operational reserve forces near Rogi (Cherkassy region).
The attack has resulted in the elimination of over 30 nationalists and more than 10 units of special military equipment and motor vehicles.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.
4 AFU command posts have been neutralised near Slavyansk, Artyomovsk and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Olgovskoye (Zaporozhye region), as well as 36 artillery units, 125 manpower and military equipment concentration areas.
The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 3 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots near Novomikhaylovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Kalinovskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) and Poltavka (Zaporozhye region).
Moreover, 1 electronic warfare station has been destroyed near Zaliznichnoye (Zaporozhye region), as well as 1 MRLS reparation and restoration workshop in Kramatorsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Air defence means have shot down 5 unmanned aerial vehicles near Nikolayevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Slavnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Petrovka (Zaporozhye region), Bezvodnoye and Vishnyovoye (Kherson region).
8 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MRLS have been destroyed in air near Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, Lyubimovka, Berislav and Tavriyskoye (Kherson region).
In total, 293 aircraft and 153 helicopters, 1,938 unmanned aerial vehicles, 374 anti defence missile systems, 4,891 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 831 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,379 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,499 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
• Das Abendbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 18:00, on September 12, 2022
The two hundred-first (201) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
The enemy continues to focus its efforts on establishing control over the territory of Donetsk oblast, maintaining the temporarily captured territories and disrupting the offensive of our troops in certain directions.
The enemy conducts aerial reconnaissance, continues fire damage to the positions of our units, tries to take measures to restore the lost position by moving his troops. The threat of air and missile strikes remains throughout the territory of Ukraine.
russian occupiers continue their tactics of terror and intimidation of the civilian population of Ukraine. Unable to respond on the battlefield, russian troops once again hit the critical infrastructure of peaceful Ukrainian cities with missiles. Energy, water supply, factories, and residential buildings in the cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Kostyantynivka, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk were hit by rockets and MLRS. The infrastructure in the areas of Pervomayiske, Bilohorivka, Zaitseve, Vesela Dolyna, Sukhy Stavok, Shyroke, Partyzanske and Lyubomyrivka settlements was damaged.
In general, during the current day, the enemy launched 5 missile strikes, more than 10 air strikes and conducted more than 20 attacks from MLRS on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
In other directions, the enemy fired at military and civilian infrastructure from tanks, combat vehicles, barrel and jet artillery, namely:
in the Kharkiv direction – in the districts of Kostyantynivka and Udy;
in the Kramatorsk direction – in the areas of Stariy Karavan, Slovyansk, Tetyanivka, Piskunivka, Raihorodok and Kryva Luka settlements;
in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of Vesele, Mykolayivka Druha, Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut and Rozdolivka settlements;
in the Avdiyivka direction – near Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka;
in the Novopavlivsky direction – in the districts of Mykilske, Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka and Vuhledar;
in the Zaporizhzhya oblast – in the areas of Novoandriivka, Novopil, Poltavka, Hulyaipole, Vremivka, Malynivka, Zelenyi Hay, Mali Shcherbaky and Vilne Pole.
In the South Buh direction, the occupiers fired from barrel and rocket artillery along the entire line of contact. In addition, the enemy carried out aerial reconnaissance by UAVs – they made 56 flies.
The military command of the russian federation suspends the sending of new, already formed units to the territory of Ukraine. The current situation in the theater of operations and distrust to the higher command forced a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse the prospect of service in combat conditions. The situation is affected by information about the actual number of dead, while losses from private military companies and those mobilized from temporarily occupied territories are not taken into account. The situation worsens due to the general attitude towards their own wounded. In particular, in russian hospitals, diagnoses and the nature of combat injuries are deliberately simplified, no time is given for rehabilitation in order to quickly return servicemen to the combat zone.
Defense forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Mayorsk, Mykolayivka Druha, Bakhmut, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
During the day, in order to support the actions of the land groupings, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out seven strikes – five strongholds and places of concentration of manpower and equipment were hit, and two positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft defense were destroyed.
During the current day, as a result of the impact of fire, units of missile troops and artillery were affected by command and control points of various levels and areas where the enemy’s manpower was concentrated. Enemy anti-aircraft defense, electronic warfare, artillery units, ammunition and fuel and oil warehouses fell into the affected area.
Clearing is ongoing in the liberated territories, and there is still a high risk of mine danger. Mass crimes committed by the enemy on Ukrainian soil, facts of violations of international humanitarian law and the rules of warfare are recorded. Representatives of the military administrations, together with the Defense Forces, are doing everything possible to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe, which is the result of constant shelling, missile and air strikes of the enemy, lack of electricity, food and medicine during the previous activities in the previously captured territories by russian invaders. The work on the evacuation of the civilian population from the war zone does not stop.
Die Diskussion über die Lieferung schwere(r) Schützenpanzer (leichte wurden ja bereits geliefert) und Kampfpanzer westlicher Bauart hat sich ja in den letzten Tagen nochmals wieder intensiviert. Auch innerhalb der Ampel, wo FDP, Grüne und Teile des rechten Flügels der SPD diese Lieferung jetzt befürworten.
Und wir haben hier auf AG dieses Thema ja schon seit langem intensiv diskutiert.
Militärexperte Gustav Gressel, der bisher mit seinen Einschätzungen meist sehr gut lag, begründet in diesem Interview, warum hier Deutschland in besonderer Verantwortung steht:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AhLBk3Q1CU
Kurz: GB und Frankreich können nicht liefern, weil sie zu wenig ihrer KP-Typen haben, und diese auch schon seit langem nicht mehr produziert werden (betrifft auch Ersatzteile). Und auch die Amerikaner könnten wohl erst mittelfristig wieder nennenswerte Stückzahlen zur Verfügung stellen (was derzeit verfügbar ist, geht nach Polen, welches damit seine gut 240 in die Ukraine gelieferten T-72 ersetzt).
Der Leo wäre der einzige Panzertyp, der in EU in ausreichend großer Stückzahl zur Verfügung stehen würde (Abgabe durch mehrere Länder und Exportgenehmigung durch D), und der noch in Produktion ist, einschl. möglicher Ersatzteilversorgung.
Auch ansonsten ein wieder sehr interessantes Interview.
Vor ein paar Tagen zu Beginn der Offensive in der Oblast Charkiw hatte ich hier meine strategische Einschätzung zu dieser Offensive erläutert. Und warum sie extrem viel Sinn macht.
Heute kann ich sagen, dass ich zu 100% richtig lag mit meiner Analyse.
Nun ein Blick auf die bisherigen realisierten Ergebnisse dieser Offensive:
1. Die Stadt Charkiw ist außer Reichweite zumindest der russischen Rohrartillerie, welche sich über die Grenze zurückziehen musste. Eine große Erleichterung insbesondere für die Zivilbevölkerung, die immer wieder massivem russischen Beschuss ausgesetzt war.
2. Der russische Versuch, Sloviansk und Kramatorsk von Norden und Osten aus gleichzeitig anzugreifen und einzunehmen, ist gescheitert. Durch die komplette Zerstörung des russ. Brückenkopfes bei Izium ist das nicht mehr möglich. Und allein von Osten aus diese Städte zu erobern wird nicht möglich sein.
3. Das russ. Ziel der kompletten Eroberung des Oblast Donetsk dürfte damit auch endgültig gescheitert sein.
4. Das „in Schach halten“ des russ. Brückenkopfes bei Izium hatte nicht unerhebliche ukrainische Verbände gebunden. Die werden jetzt frei.
5. Die Ukraine hat auch ganz wichtige Nachschublinien für Lyman und Severodonetzk erobert. Dort wird es jetzt für die Russen deswegen auch eng(er).
6. Den Ukrainern sind erhebliche Mengen an Munition und schwerem Gerät in die Hände gefallen (siehe z.B. die Auflistung bei https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html .Die Zahl erbeuteter russischer Waffen für die Ukraine ist übers Wochenende dreistellig gewachsen).
Da sie genug Soldaten, aber zu wenig schwere Ausrüstung (Schützenpanzer, Kampfpanzer, Panzerhaubitzen) haben, verbessert sich ihre Lage in diesem Bereich.
7. Die psychologische Wirkung ist nicht zu unterschätzen: Wie ich durch meine Kontakte in die Ukraine weiß, sind die Erfolge der Ukraine der letzten Zeit eine enorme Motivation nicht nur für das ukrainische Militär, sondern für die gesamte Bevölkerung.
Und die negativen Auswirkungen auf die russ. Kampfmoral sind ebenfalls erheblich.
@FreeEurope:
Stimme zu. Den psychologischen Effekt für die ukrainischen Truppen wie auch die geschundene Zivilbevölkerung (es werden ja derzeit wieder Berichte über Willkür, außergesetzliche Tötungen und Folter in ehemals von den russischen Einheiten besetzten Gebieten publik) kann man in Geld und guten Worten gar nicht aufwiegen. Ebenso die Demoralisierungswirkung auf die Russen.
Zur Ehrenrettung einiger russischer Soldaten: Nicht alle richten ihre Angst in ohnmächtiger Aggression gegen die vorhandene Zivilbevölkerung. Selbstverstümmelung ist inzwischen ein häufiger Versuch, das Ticket raus aus der Ukraine zu lösen. Viele Einheiten verweigern aufgrund der desolaten Versorgungs- und Materiallage auch die Befehlsausführung.
Auch wenn die Versorgungslage mit eigenem sowjetischen Material durch die derzeit gemachten Beutegeräte wieder etwas besser wird, bleibt die Lieferung von westlichen Kampfpanzern und anderen gepanzerten Fahrzeugen mittelfristig für die Ukraine ohnehin alternativlos, wenn die Streitkräfte nicht mangels Wartung und Instandhaltung in sich zusammenfallen sollen.
Denn es ist wohl nicht anzunehmen, dass Russland an die Ukraine künftig noch Ersatzteile für deren Panzer und BMP liefern wird – außer durch von den Besatzungen zurückgelassene Einzelstücke. Und warum sollte die Ukraine eigene Produktionskapazitäten für die Instandhaltung veralteten Materials aufbauen, wenn man das genausogut lieber für westliche, modernere Ausrüstung tun kann?
Vielleicht baut die Ukraine irgendwann sogar ein Werk zur Fertigung von Leopard 2 mit KMW zusammen und baut die Dinger teilweise in Lizenz… Aber da sprechen wir von einem Zeithorizont weit hinter einem möglichen Friedensschluss…