Ukraine/Russland/NATO – der Sammler am 6. August 2022
Im andauernden russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine sehen die britischen Nachrichtendienste fast sicher – eine für diese Quellen seltene Bewertung – eine große Verschiebung russischer Truppen in den Süden der Ukraine, mit der einer erwarteten ukrainischen Offensive begegnet werden soll. Die Internationale Atomenergie-Agentur warnt eindringlich vor einer Katastrophe am Atomkraftwerk Saporischschja. Der Sammler am 6. August 2022:
• Das britische Intel-Update:
Russian forces are almost certainly massing in the south in anticipation of Ukraine’s counter-offensive or in preparation for a possible assault.
Long convoys of Russian military trucks, tanks, towed artillery, and other weapons continue to move away from Ukraine’s Donbas region and are headed southwest.
Equipment was also reported to be moving from Russian-occupied Melitopol, Berdiansk, Mariupol and from mainland Russia via the Kerch Bridge into Crimea.
Battalion tactical groups (BTG), which comprise between 800 and 1,000 troops, have been deployed to Crimea and would almost certainly be used to support Russian troops in the Kherson region.
On 02 August 2022, a new BTG had been deployed to Crimea and BTGs are also being re-deployed from Eastern Grouping of Forces. These will highly likely be sent into the Kherson region in the coming days.
Ukrainian forces are focusing their targeting on bridges, ammunition depots, and rail links with growing frequency in Ukraine’s southern regions.
Including the strategically important railroad spur that links Kherson to Russian-occupied Crimea, almost certainly using a combination of block, damage, degrade, deny, destroy, and disrupt effects to try to affect Russia’s ability to logistically resupply.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is about to enter a new phase, with the heaviest fighting shifting to a roughly 350km front line stretching southwest from near Zaporizhzhya to Kherson, paralleling the Dnieper River.
• Die Internationale Atomenergie-Agentur (IAEA) veröffentlichte eine dringende Stellungnahme zum umkämpften Atomkraftwerk Saporischschja:
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, issued the following statement today about the situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant:
I’m extremely concerned by the shelling yesterday at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which underlines the very real risk of a nuclear disaster that could threaten public health and the environment in Ukraine and beyond.
The IAEA has received information about this serious situation – the latest in a long line of increasingly alarming reports from all sides.
According to Ukraine, there has been no damage to the reactors themselves and no radiological release. However, there is damage elsewhere on the site.
Military action jeopardizing the safety and security of the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant is completely unacceptable and must be avoided at all costs.
Any military firepower directed at or from the facility would amount to playing with fire, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
I strongly and urgently appeal to all parties to exercise the utmost restraint in the vicinity of this important nuclear facility, with its six reactors.
And I condemn any violent acts carried out at or near the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant or against its staff.
The Ukrainian staff operating the plant under Russian occupation must be able to carry out their important duties without threats or pressure undermining not only their own safety but also that of the facility itself.
In this highly volatile and dangerous situation, it is more important than ever that the seven indispensable safety pillars that I outlined at the beginning of the war, and that I reiterated at the United Nations in New York last Monday, are fully respected in order to maintain nuclear safety and security.
Ominously, however, almost all have been compromised at the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant over the past several months, and yet again, in the last 24 hours, several pillars have been violated.
This must stop and stop now.
In order to help prevent the situation from spiralling even more out of control, the IAEA’s presence to provide technical support for nuclear safety and security is of paramount importance.
Since the beginning of this tragic war, the IAEA – and I personally – has been working on supporting Ukraine in keeping all its nuclear facilities safe and secure.
And for the last four months now, I have been ready to lead a mission of IAEA safety, security and safeguards experts to the country’s biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzya.
This mission would play a crucial role in helping to stabilise the nuclear safety and security situation there, as we have at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant and elsewhere in Ukraine in recent months where we have also delivered nuclear safety and security equipment that is urgently needed.
At the same time, IAEA safeguards inspectors would conduct essential verification activities at the plant.
We would also provide impartial and independent information about the status of the Zaporizhzya facility.
That this vital mission has not yet happened is not because of the IAEA. Despite our determined efforts, it has not been possible, so far.
I will not give up. I will continue to push – and push again – for this IAEA mission to finally take place.
But this will need the cooperation, understanding and facilitation from both Ukraine and Russia.
We will also need the United Nations to support us, and I’m very grateful for the steadfast support of UN Secretary General António Guterres.
We can’t afford to lose any more time.
For the sake of protecting people in Ukraine and elsewhere from a potential nuclear accident, we must all set aside our differences and act, now. The IAEA is ready.
• Das Morgenbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 06:00, on August 6, 2022
The one hundred sixty-fourth (164) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
There are no major changes on the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversky directions. The enemy carried out artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Hai and Mykhalchyna Sloboda of the Chernihiv oblast, as well as Nova Huta of the Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy conducted defensive combat operations with the aim of holding the occupied lines and preventing the offensive of Ukrainian units. Conducted remote mining of the area.
In the Kharkiv direction, the districts of Prudyanka, Slatyne, Pytomnyk, Petrivka, Korobochkyne, Mospanove and Zamulivka were shelled with barrel and rocket artillery. Carried out airstrikes near Verkhniy Saltiv and Lebyazhe.
Conducted aerial reconnaissance by UAVs in the areas of Lisne, Pytomnyk, Ryasne, Protopopivka, Pryshyb and Nortsivka settlements.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy carried out fire damage from artillery of various types near Mazanivka, Krasnopilla, Sulihivka, Karnaukhivka, and Virnopilla.
The enemy is conducting an offensive operation in the Donetsk direction, concentrating its main efforts on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. Uses attack and army aviation.
In the Kramatorsk direction, shelling was recorded near Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy from tanks, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of the settlements of Bakhmutske, Toretsk, Bilohorivka, Krasnopolivka, Pivnichne and Vershyna. Airstrikes near Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmut and Berestove.
It led offensive battles in the direction of Yakovlivka – Vershyna and Kodema – Zaitseve, it was unsuccessful and left. Leads an offensive in the direction of Bakhmut, hostilities continue.
In the Avdiyivka direction, the enemy fired from barrel and rocket artillery in the vicinity of New York, Pervomaisky, Vodyane and Opytne. Carried out airstrikes near Novohradske, Pavlivka, and Prechistivka. It led an offensive in the direction of Lozove – Nevelske, was unsuccessful, withdrew. Conducted regrouping.
On the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, enemy shelling from barrel, rocket artillery and tanks was recorded in the areas of the settlements of Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Shevchenko, Novodanylivka, Vilne Pole, Burlatske, Zelene Pole, Zeleny Hai, Chervone, Stepove and Vremivka. Airstrikes were carried out near Maryinka, Mali Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novosilka and Temyrivka.
The enemy was conducting aerial reconnaissance by BpLA near Krasnohorivka, Novosilka, and Tavriyskyi.
The enemy is conducting a defensive operation in the South Buz direction. The main efforts are focused on holding the occupied areas and inflicting maximum losses on the units of the Defense Forces.
The enemy fired tanks and various types of artillery in the areas of Lymany, Prybuzke, Tavriyske, Luch, Myrne, Partyzanske, Blahodatne, Shyroke, Kyselivka, Kvitneve, Kavkaz, Bila Krynytsia, Bilohirka, Dobryanka, Osokorivka, and Mykolaivka. It carried out airstrikes in the Andriyivka area, as well as the Khutorska valley and the Plotnytsky tract.
Reconnaissance actions of enemy UAVs were recorded in the vicinity of Bila Krynytsia, Nyzhni Sirohozy, Lozove and Andriivka.
In the waters of the Black Sea, the enemy’s ship group continues to perform the specified tasks. There remains a threat of missile strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine.
Four sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.
• Das Briefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
Air strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces and artillery units‘ fire have hit temporary deployment point of the 46th Brigade of AFU near Belogorka, Kherson Region. More than 400 nationalists have been killed.
As a result of high-precision weapons strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces against combat positions of 105th Battalion of 63rd Mechanized Brigade of AFU in Andreyevka, Lozovoye and Dolhovoye, Kherson Region, over 70 nationalists have been killed and about 150 wounded.
As a result of high-precision strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces against a stronghold of the Foreign Legion formation more than 80 foreign mercenaries and 11 pieces of special equipment have been destroyed in Vyvodovo, Dnepropetrovsk Region.
Against the background of massive losses of Ukrainian troops in Nikolaev direction, soldiers of units of 59th Motorised Infantry Brigade and 61st Infantry-Jaeger Brigade as well as 35th Marine Brigade have refused to follow the order for offensive, are abandoning their positions and deserting.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.
During the day, 1 command post of 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of AFU near Druzhkovka in Donetsk People’s Republic has been hit, as well as 135 areas of AFU personnel and military equipment concentration.
2 ammunition depots near Trudovoye and Soledar in Donetsk People’s Republic have been destroyed.
In addition, 1 AFU fuel depot with more than 50,000 tonnes of diesel fuel for military equipment of Dnepr task force groupping has been destroyed near Zaporozhye.
During counter-battery warfare, 1 Ukrainian platoon of Olkha and US HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems has been destroyed near Pyatigorskoye, Kharkov Region.
5 platoons of Grad MLRS, 3 platoons of Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, 1 artillery platoon of Giatsint-B guns and 4 artillery platoons of D-30 howitzers at firing positions have been suppressed near Avdeyevka, Soledar, Seversk, Serebryanka, Artemovsk, Novgorodskoye, Georgiyevka, Velyka Novoselka, Shnurki in Donetsk People’s Republic, Kalinovka and Dobroye in Nikolaev Region.
Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed 2 Su-25s of Ukrainian Air Force.
1 Su-25 has been shot down during aerial battle by operational-tactical aviation near Solntsevo, Kirovograd Region. Another Ukrainian Su-25 has been shot down by air defence means near Radgosnoye, Kherson Region.
Russian air defence means have also shot down 8 unmanned aerial vehicles near Dibrovnoye, Suligovka, Dolgenkoye, Prishib, Bayrak, Volokhov Yar in Kharkov Region and Pologi in Zaporozhye Region.
In addition, 26 multiple-launch rockets have been intercepted near Kakhovkaya hydroelectric power station, Antonovskyi Bridge, Chernobayevka, Brilevka, Novaya Kakhovka, Aleshkovskiye Peski, Tsyurupinsk in Kherson Region, Sukhaya Kamenka and Barvenkovo in Kharkov Region.
A total of 263 aircraft, 145 helicopters, 1,693 unmanned aerial vehicles, 361 surface-to-air missiles, 4,259 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 789 multiple rocket launchers, 3,270 pieces of field artillery and mortars, and 4,739 special military vehicles have been destroyed since the start of the special military operation.
• Das Abendbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:
Operational update regarding the russian invasion as of 18:00, on August 6, 2022
The one hundred sixty-fifth (164) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
The situation has not changed in the Volyn and Polissya directions. The threat of the enemy launching missile and air strikes from the territory and airspace of the Republic of belarus remains.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy carried out artillery fire near Yanzhulivka, Mykolayivka, and Zalizny Mist in the Chernihiv oblast, as well as near Nova Huta in the Sumy oblast.
The enemy did not conduct active offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction. It used barrel and rocket artillery for shelling the districts of Prudyanka, Duvanka, Zolochiv and another 27 settlements. Carried out airstrikes near Verkhniy Saltiv, Lebyazhe and Husarivka.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy carried out fire damage from barrel and jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Komyshuvakha, Sulihivka, Dovhenke, Dolyna, Mazanivka, Adamivka, Karnaukhivka, Kurulka, Ridne, Dibrivne, Hrushuvaha, Bohorodychne and Mayak.
Separate units of the enemy tried to advance to the area of the western outskirts of Bohorodychne, they did not succeed, they retreated.
The enemy did not conduct offensive operations in the Kramatorsk direction. Fired from tanks and artillery near Siversk, Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, Dronivka, Donetsk, Hryhorivka, Riznykivka, Mykolaivka, Spirne, Zvanivka, Pereizne, Kalenyky, Dolyna, and Vyimka.
In the direction of Bakhmut, enemy shelling was recorded near Bakhmut, Soledar, Zaytseve, Yakovlivka, Kodema, Yuriyvka, Bakhmutske, Berestove, Pokrovske and Ivanhrad. russian attack and army aircraft struck near Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmut, Berestove and Yakovlivka.
The occupiers tried to improve the tactical position in the directions of Stryapivka – Bakhmutske, Pokrovske – Soledar, Pokrovske – Bakhmut, Volodymyrivka – Yakovlivka, Vidrodzhenna – Vershyna, Pokrovske – Vershyna. In all the indicated directions, the enemy was resolutely repulsed by Ukrainian soldiers and retreated.
In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy’s barrel and rocket artillery shelled the districts of Avdiivka, Pisky, Netailove, Nevelske, and New York. Assault aircraft of the occupiers operated near New York, Krasnohorivka, Pisky, and Maryinka.
With offensive actions, the Russian invaders tried to break through the defense of our troops in the directions of Spartak – Avdiivka, Vesele – Pisky, Novoselivka Druga – Krasnohorivka, Oleksandrivka – Maryinka, Kyrylivka – Pavlivka and Prechistivka – Novomayorske. Ukrainian soldiers inflicted significant losses on the enemy and pushed them back.
On the Novopavlivsky and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy carried out shelling near Novomykhailivka, Shevchenko, Velika Novosilka, Zaporizhzhia, Zaliznychne, Novodanylivka, Zelene Pole and Charivne. It carried out airstrikes in the areas of Temyrivka, Mali Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Vuhledar, Pavlivka and Prechystivka.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is trying to hold the occupied positions and prevent the Defense Forces from creating favorable conditions for resuming the offensive and liberating the temporarily captured territory by systematically using the available means of fire damage along the contact line and in the depth of the defense.
The occupiers used army aircraft for strikes near Andriivka. Aerial reconnaissance of the area was actively carried out by unmanned aerial vehicles.
Four sea-based cruise missile carriers are in readiness for the use of high-precision weapons in the waters of the Black Sea.
There remains a threat of missile strikes on military facilities and infrastructure elements throughout the territory of Ukraine. Do not ignore air raid signals.
Eine interessante Meldung noch von heute morgen: Es gab keine Einigung über eine Lieferung Türkischer Kampfdrohnen an Russland.
Quelle: NTV – heute 9:48
[Hm, ich rate zur Vorsicht, so wie ich das verstehe, ist nicht bekannt, ob es eine Absprache gab – die harte Aussage, es habe keine Einigung gegeben, scheint mir nicht belegbar. T.W.]
„… eine große Verschiebung russischer Truppen in den Süden der Ukraine, mit der einer erwarteten ukrainischen Offensive begegnet werden soll“. (s.o.)
Ich halte mal dagegen.
Wir sehen eine groß angelegte strategische Täuschung, Maskirovka in UKR Manier.
Seit Wochen wird über einen bevorstehenden Stoß UKR Kräfte im Süden in allgemeiner Richtung Cherson und ggf weiter gegen die Krim geschrieben und berichtet.
UKR Kräfte im Süden, insbesondere die Artillerie, bestätigen die Vermutung durch Beschuss und teilweise Unbrauchbarmachung von Straßen- und Bahnbrücken über den Dnjepr, Beschuss von HQ und LogZentren. Vereinzelt vorgetragene infanteristische Gegenangriffe und Auftritt von Partisanen auf unterer taktischer Ebene geben den Eindruck der Angriffsvorbereitung für die Großverbandsebene wider.
Der RUS Generalstab sieht die Krim, deren Wasserversorgung sowie die Straßenverbindung Richtung Odessa gefährdet und verstärkt den Süden mit Kampftruppe aus dem Raum Charkiv/Donbas und vom RUS Kernland aus.
Der Vorteil überlegener Kampfkraft im Donbas ist gefährdet, wird u.U. aus der Hand gegeben.
UKR Kräfte warten den Abschluss dieser Umgruppierung ab, setzen weiterhin Nadelstiche im Süden. Sie nutzen die „Innere Linie“ kürzerer Marschwege und zentraler Logistik, um schließlich die eigentliche Absicht, nämlich das Vernichten des Feindes in Donezk/Luhansk durch einen Gegenangriff auch mit mech Kräften zu erreichen.
Wenn man sich die rus. Erfolgsmeldungen so durchliest fragt man sich warum die nicht schon längst an der poln Grenze stehen. Heute wieder hunderte Nationalisten getötet, 50000t Dieselöl, 2 Flugzeuge und (welche Überraschung) HIMARS zerstört. Bei den täglichen Verlusten sollten die Ukr doch längst geschlagen sein.
Auf der anderen Seite eine Gegenoffensive auf einen überlegenen Gegner die wochenlang angekündigt wird?
Wäre eigentlich komisch wenns nicht so unendlich traurig und grausam wäre.
@KPK
Bisher sehe ich eine gezielte Überstrapazierung der russischen Versorgung. Gerade die Bahnbrücke scheint sich zu einem Schrecken ohne Ende wie einst die Schlangeninsel zu entwickeln – Russland schickt jede Menge Material und Waffen über den Dnepr nur damit die Lieferungen auf der Schiene regelmäßig komplett per Artillerie aufgerieben werden. Und das sind keine kleinen Mengen, wir reden inzwischen von über 100 Wagons und fünf bis neun Kompanien. Sie bekommen einfach nichts mehr durch außer Kleinbusse.
Es ist ein Armutszeugnis dass die russische Generalität sich nicht längst hinter dem Fluss neu organisiert hat. Vermutlich traut sich keiner dem President for Live die Wahrheit zu sagen – ich denke nicht dass es da bei einem geworfenem Stuhl bliebe.
Selbst das Wiederherstellen der Schienensysteme ist inzwischen eine Selbstmordaufgabe für die Russland zivile Mitarbeiter aus der Heimat heranziehen muss.
Und seien wir ehrlich, sobald die Versorgung komplett zusammenbricht fällt das russische Kartenhaus im Süden einfach zusammen.
@ KPK:
So ähnlich sehe ich das auch. Das Überrraschungsmoment ist längst schon durch. Allein das Ankündigen der Gegenoffensive war eigentlich schon verdächtig. Da hätte schon etwas richtig großes oder überraschendes kommen müssen. Von daher könnte es wirklich sein, dass man die Russen unnötige und lange Wege gehen lassen will und diese dabei mit Nadelstichen und der sinnlosen Lage des hin/her auch mental zermürben möchte.
Das scheint zumindest erst einmal auch zu funktionieren.
Warum gibt es keine Berichte von deutschen Geheimdiensten auf Deutsch?
@Dante: Ich bin sicher, dass es die gibt. Allerdings haben die bekanntlich grundsätzlich die Eigenschaft, geheim zu sein, bis sie anderweitig eingestuft werden, oder der verantwortliche Empfänger (hier: die BReg) entscheidet, welche Informationen daraus aus politischen, strategischen oder sonstwelchen Gründen veröffentlicht werden können.
@KPK: Die Ankündigung der Offensive war und ist eigentlich ein geschickter Schachzug, um den Gegner, der nicht über verlässliche eigene Aufklärung verfügt, über die eigenen Pläne im Unsicheren zu lassen. Entweder die russischen Truppen werden zum Schutz der Krim umgruppiert, dann kann die Ukraine im Osten verstärkt angreifen; oder die Truppen bleiben im Osten, dann bedrängt man Kherson und macht im Süden Gelände wieder gut.
Das wird noch einige Male so oder so ähnlich passieren.
@KPK
Aus taktischer Sicht (zumindest aus der Sicht eines Sessel-Generals wie mir) wäre es für die Russen tasächlich vernünftiger, die Stadt Cherson aufzugeben, sich auf der Südseite des Dnepr zurückzuziehen und die Brücken selbst zu sprengen. Die breite Flußaue mit ihrem sumpfiegen Boden und den vielen Altarmen wäre für die ukrainische Armee ein nur schwer überwindbares Hindernis. Um die Landverbindung mit der Krim und damit die wichte Versorgung mit Wasser und Strom zur Krim sicherzustellen, braucht es die Gebiete auf der anderen Seite des Dnepr nicht.
Aber haben Sie mal überlegt, ob es für das Vorgehen der Russen keine militärischen sondern politische Gründe geben könnte? Vergleichen Sie mal den aktuellen Frontverlauf, wie er jetzt im wesentlichen seit Wochen völlig unverändert ist mit der Grenze des Oblast Cherson. Ihnen wir auffallen, dass die Linen fast deckungsgleich sind.
Die Russen wollen den gesamten Oblast nicht nur einen Teil davon. Genauso wie sie den gesamten Oblast Luhansk wollten. Das und der Besitz des Verwaltungszentrums scheint aus russischer Sicht die Voraussetzung dafür zu sein, dort eine unabhängige Volksrepublik zu gründen. Eine VR die dann später der russischen Föderation beitritt.
Was die ukrainische Gegenoffensive anbetrifft, so scheint sie genau das verhindern zu wollen. Die Gegenoffensive ist nicht dazu angelegt, den ganzen Oblast zurück zu erobern.
Abgesehen davon, dass der ukrainischen Armee dazu die Soldaten fehlen, würde die Zerstörung von zwei der drei möglichen Übergänge über den Dnepr eine Rückeroberung auch deutlich erschweren.
Haben sich die Russen erstmal auf die Südseite des Dnepr zurückgezogen, dann führt eine Rückeroberung des gesamten Cherson Oblasts über die Rückeroberung der besetzten Teile des Saporishia Oblasts. So wie die Lage aktuell aussieht müssten die ukrainischen Streitkräfte, von Saporishia aus östlich des Dnepr, entlang der M-18 nach Süden, vorstoßen um dann südlich von Kamyanske die russische Verteidigung zu durchbrechen. Ich kann mir das aktuell nicht vorstellen.