Das bedeutendste politische Ereignis dieses Sonntags, wenn auch nur eine mittelbare Folge des russischen Angriffskriegs gegen die Ukraine, ist das Bekenntnis Finnlands zum geplanten NATO-Beitritt. Und als Konsequenz, unter anderem, die deutsche Zusage einer sehr schnellen Zustimmung (s. u.). Der Sammler am 15. Mai 2022:
• Das britische Intel Update:
Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule. Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high levels of attrition.
Russia has now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed in February.
These delays will almost certainly be exacerbated by the loss of critical enablers such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones.
Russian bridging equipment has been in short supply throughout the conflict, slowing and restricting offensive manoeuvre. Russian UAVs are vital for tactical awareness and directing artillery, but have been vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-air capabilities.
Russian forces are increasingly constrained by degraded enabling capabilities, continued low morale and reduced combat effectiveness. Many of these capabilities cannot be quickly replaced or reconstituted, and are likely to continue to hinder Russian operations in Ukraine.
Under the current conditions, Russia is unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days.
Allerdings: Für die Einschätzung, Russland habe seit Kriegsbeginn ein Drittel seiner Kräfte verloren, gibt es bislang keine weitere Quelle – offensichtlich auch nicht aus den USA.
The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 06.00 on May 15, 2022.
The eighty-first day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy does not cease offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, russian enemy did not take active action. The threat of missile and bomb strikes on objects on the territory of our state from the territory of the republic of belarus remains. Demonstration and provocative actions by units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus are not ruled out in the border areas.
In the Siverskyy direction, russian enemy continues to strengthen the protection of the Ukrainian-russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions, fires and launches air strikes on the territory of Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
In the Slobozhansky direction, russian enemy took measures to regroup its units, replenish stocks of ammunition, fuel and oil to restore the offensive capabilities.
In the Kharkiv direction, russian enemy units did not conduct active hostilities.
In the Slovyansk direction, russian enemy fired on units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine. He tried to break through the defences of our troops, but was unsuccessful. Carries out replenishment and restoring of losses, continues regrouping of troops to resume the offensive in the direction of Barvinkove and Slovyansk.
russian enemy is trying to develop success in the Bakhmut direction. Despite the losses, russian enemy continues to advance in the Lyman, Severodonetsk, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv areas. The regrouping of enemy troops in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions is noted.
In the city of Mariupol, the blockade of Ukrainian units in the area of the Azovstal plant continues. russian invaders did not stop air strikes and artillery shelling.
russian enemy did not conduct active hostilities in the South Buh area. Continues to hold positions. His main efforts are focused on conducting air reconnaissance and shelling the positions of the Defence Forces.
The moral and psychological condition of russian enemy’s units remains low, and enemy units continue to suffer losses in manpower and equipment.
According to the available information, in connection with the significant losses of the 810th Separate Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet during hostilities in Ukraine, it was decided to replenish the brigade with personnel from other units of the Black Sea Fleet, including crew members.
During the previous day, the air defence units of the Land Forces and the Air Force shot down eight air targets: seven Orlan-10 UAVs, one aircraft.
The Air Forces of Ukraine continued to fire at russian enemy and support the fighting of our troops. In particular, the platoon base, the command and control post of the company, 10 armoured vehicles and enemy personnel were destroyed.
Twelve enemy attacks were repulsed in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions over the past 24 hours, eight tanks, five artillery systems, nine units of armoured combat vehicles and five enemy vehicles were destroyed. russian occupiers have losses in other areas as well.
• Das Morgenbriefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:
High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 2 command posts, 11 company strongpoints and 4 ammunition depots of AFU near Zaporozhye, Paraskovievka, Kostantinovka and Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 32 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.
2 S-300 anti-aircraft missile launchers and 1 radar post near Shpilevka, Sumy Region, have been destroyed.
Missile troops and artillery have hit 6 command posts, 123 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, and 13 AFU artillery batteries at firing positions.
The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 150 nationalists and up to 26 armoured and motor vehicles.
Russian air defence mean overnight shot down 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Novotroitskoe, Vladimirovka, Petrovskoe, Luganskoe of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Yepifanovka, Kudryashovka, Verkhnyaya Duvanka of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Chkalovskoe, Velykie Prokhody, Vyshee Solenoe in Kharkov Region and over Snake Island.
In addition, 1 Tochka-U tactical missile was intercepted near Stepnoe, Kherson Region, and 11 Smerch multiple-launch rockets were intercepted near Kamenka, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Brazhkovka, Kharkov Region, and Chernobayevka, Kherson Region.
In total, 165 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 879 unmanned aerial vehicles, 306 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,098 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 381 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,525 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,934 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.
• Die beiden nordeuropäischen, bislang neutralen Staaten Finnland und Schweden stehen vor einem Beitritt zur NATO und damit vor einem Wechsel ihrer langjährigen – im Fall Schwedens sogar Jahrhunderte langen – Neutralitätspolitik. Die weitestgehende Aussage dazu kam am Sonntag vom finnischen Staatspräsidenten Sauli Niinisto – aus der Reuters-Meldung:
Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto confirmed on Sunday that his country would apply for membership of the NATO military alliance, in a historic policy shift prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (…)
„Today, we, the president and the government’s foreign policy committee, have together decided that Finland … will apply for NATO membership,“ Niinisto told reporters in the presidential palace in Helsinki.
Eine schwedische Erklärung wird für Mitte der Woche erwartet.
Der Beitritt der beiden Länder war auch wesentliches Thema des informellen Treffens der NATO-Außenminister in Berlin. Die deutsche Ministerin Annalena Baerbock sicherte dabei für Deutschland ein Fast Track-Verfahren, eine beschleunigte Aufnahmeprozedur für Finnland und Schweden zu. So soll nach dem formalen Beitrittsantrag ein schneller Beschluss des Bundeskabinetts und eine Sondersitzung des Bundestages sicherstellen, das Deutschland als eines der ersten Länder diesen Beitritt ratifiziert.
Baerbock sagte das in der gemeinsamen Pressekonferenz mit NATO-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg nach dem Berliner Treffen (hier im Audio, das von der NATO veröffentlicht wurde, bei Minute 14:50; vom Auswärtigen Amt gab es am/wg. Sonntag weder eine Mitteilung noch ein Transkript oder Audio dazu):
Für die Aufnahme müssen alle 30 NATO-Mitlieder zustimmen. Ob das so schnell klappen wird, ist – unter anderem wegen politischer Spannungen zwischen der Türkei und den beiden Aufnahmekandidaten – nicht ganz sicher, und die Allianz ist bemüht, in der gray zone, der Übergangszeit zwischen Antrag und tatsächlicher Aufnahme auf mögliche russische Interventionen welcher Art auch immer vorbereitet zu sein.
Die Aussage dazu von Generalsekretär Stoltenberg:
Then, let me add that.. we are also aware that that Finland and Sweden are of course concerned about the interim period from when they have applied to the accession, and all the national parliaments have ratified the Accession Protocol.
We will try to speed up that process as much as possible. Many Allies have stated that they will find fast tracks as, for instance, Germany has indicated that this can go quite fast. But anyway, there will be a time period between application and the full membership. It is clear that Finnish and Swedish membership matters for NATO. We will look into ways to provide security assurances including by increasing NATO presence in the region, in the Baltic region, in and around Finland and Sweden, of course in close consultation and…an agreement with Finland and Sweden.
Mit anderen Worten: Eine auch militärische Präsenz derzeitiger NATO-Mitglieder in Finnland und Schweden ist zumindest für diese Übergangsperiode absehbar.
Ergänzung: Die Türkei machte deutlich, dass sie für eine Zustimmung Bedingungen stellt, wie Reuters berichtet:
Turkey’s foreign minister said on Sunday that Sweden and Finland must stop supporting terrorist groups in their countries, provide clear security guarantees and lift export bans on Turkey as they seek membership in NATO.
Speaking after a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Berlin, Mevlut Cavusoglu said he met his Swedish and Finnish counterparts and all were seeking to address Turkey’s concerns. (…)
„There absolutely needs to be security guarantees here. They need to stop supporting terrorist organizations,“ Cavusoglu told Turkish reporters in Berlin. He added that Swedish and Finnish bans on exporting of some of their defence sector goods to Turkey must end.
The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 18.00 on May 15, 2022.
The eighty-first day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy does not stop conducting offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson oblasts and maintain the land corridor with the temporarily occupied Crimea.
There are no active actions of russian enemy units in the Volyn and Polissya areas. No signs of formation of offensive groups were found. Units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to carry out tasks to cover the section of the Ukrainian-belarusian border.
In the Siversky direction, russian enemy is intensifying the protection of the Ukrainian-russian border in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. It fired on our territories and fired missiles at civilian infrastructure in the settlements of Shipylivka and Shevchenkove, Sumy oblast.
In the Kharkiv direction, russian enemy focused its main efforts on maintaining the occupied positions and preventing the advance of our troops to the State Border of Ukraine. In this direction, russian enemy uses units that were formed during the mobilization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In addition, russian occupiers systematically shelled the settlements of Ruski Tyshky, Ternova and Petrivka. They are trying unsuccessfully to conduct offensive and assault operations in the areas of Dovhenke and Bogorodychne settlements.
In the Donetsk direction, russian enemy continues to carry out intense shelling along the line of contact and tries to gain a foothold in the occupied positions, replenishing stocks of ammunition and fuel and oil. The main efforts of russian enemy continued to focus on the Lyman, Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv areas.
russian occupiers suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment. In some areas, the staffing of units, according to the results of hostilities, is less than 20 percent. In the Popasna direction, due to heavy losses and inability to act independently, units of the airborne troops of the armed forces of the russian federation are teaming up with representatives of russian private military companies for further action as part of the combined units.
In the Severodonetsk direction, russian enemy, with the support of artillery, fought in the area of the village of Toshkivka. In the area of Borivskyi, russian occupiers suffered losses and retreated.
Fighting continues in the Bakhmut direction in the Komyshuvakha area.
russian enemy fought in the Avdiivka direction and suffered losses in the area of the settlements of Pisky and Novokalynove. It used heavy flamethrower systems in some areas.
It conducted assault and offensive operations in the Kurakhiv direction, using artillery support. It was not successful.
In Mariupol, russian enemy continues to focus its efforts on blocking and defeating our units in the area of the Azovstal plant. Inflicts massive artillery and air strikes.
In the Novopavlovsk and Zaporizhzhya directions, russian enemy tried to fire our troops with multiple rocket launchers, artillery and mortars. There were attempts to fight the counter-battery.
In the South Buh direction, enemy units did not conduct active hostilities. In the Kryvyi Rih and Mykolayiv directions, russian enemy fired at our units with artillery and mortars. Continues the engineering equipment of the occupied positions.
The command of the armed forces of the russian federation is trying to recruit and replenish the losses of its troops at the expense of reservists. Two and a half thousand reservists are being trained at landfills in Voronezh, Belgorod and Rostov oblasts. It is planned to send them to the territory of Ukraine to take part in the war.
(Hinweis: Die Kommentarfunktion ist wieder offen.)