Ukraine/Russland/NATO – der Sammler am 31. März 2022 (Update)

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Im anhaltenden russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine bereiten sich die russischen Behörden nach ukrainischer Darstellung auf eine verwaltungstechnische Übernahme besetzter Gebiete im Osten vor – unter anderem soll in Kherson eine weitere so genannte Volksrepublik etabliert werden. Westliche Nachrichtendienste gehen davon aus, dass der russische Präsident nicht alle Informationen über Probleme beim russischen Vorgehen erhält. Der Sammler am 31. März 2022:

• Aus der Nacht nachgetragen: Westliche Nachrichtendienste, insbesondere aus den USA und Großbritannien, haben sich zur Steuerung des Krieges aus Moskau geäußert, mit der Kernaussage: Die russischen Streitkräfte haben in ihrem Krieg in der Ukraine massive interne Probleme, selbst einen Abschuss eines eigenen Flugzeugs soll es gegeben haben, und der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin wird darüber im Unklaren gelassen. So der Direktor des britischen Abhör- und Nachrichtendienstes GCHQ, Jeremy Fleming, bei einer Rede in Australien:

That said, it increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation. It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He underestimated the strength of the coalition his actions would galvanise. He under-played the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He over-estimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory. We’ve seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale – refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.
And even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime.

Ähnlich berichtet die New York Times unter Berufung auf US-Geheimdienstkreise:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.
The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Und Pentagon-Sprecher John Kirby bestätigt diese Erkenntnisse, wenn auch zurückhaltend:

On the reports of — of Putin not being well — be advised — you know, I’m going to be careful here not to getting — not — not to getting into — into intelligence. But we would concur with the conclusion that — that Mr. Putin has — has not been fully informed by his ministry of defense at every turn over the last month. Now, I want to caveat that. We don’t have access to every bit of information that he’s been given, or every conversation that he’s had, and I’m going to be very careful here not getting into too much more detail on this.

Das ist alles mit gewisser Vorsicht zu betrachten (aus deutscher Sicht einnert manches an den Spruch Wenn das der Führer wüsste), aber ist dennoch ein wichtiger Merkposten.

• Das britische Intel Update:

Despite Russian statements indicating an intended reduction of military activity around Chernihiv, significant Russian shelling and missile strikes have continued.
Russian forces continue to hold positions to the east and west of Kyiv despite the withdrawal of a limited number of units. Heavy fighting will likely take place in the suburbs of the city in coming days.
Heavy fighting continues in Mariupol, a key objective of Russian forces, however Ukrainian forces remain in control of the centre of the city.

• Das Morgenbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs:

The thirty-sixth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the russian military invasion begins.
The leadership of the russian federation is considering the formation of occupation authorities in the temporarily occupied territories. According to the available information, employees of law enforcement agencies, prosecutor’s offices and courts are being selected on the territory of the russian federation, which will be sent to the territory of Ukraine in the future.
To implement the scenario of creating another pseudo-republic in the Kherson region, the work of the Federal Security Service of the russian federation, the 652nd Group of Information and Psychological Operations and officers of the 12th Main Directorate of the General Staff of the russian federation is noted. The main activity of these units is the so-called „explanatory work“ with local authorities and the public. Information support is provided by showing videos with fictitious persons.
The morale and psychological condition of the russian enemy troops and the level of motivation of the personnel of the occupying forces to take part in hostilities remains low and tends to deteriorate. According to the available information, two platoon commanders were removed from their positions in the units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 5th all-military army of the Eastern Military District due to non-fulfillment of the order to conduct hostilities. The Deputy Commander of the Brigade for Military and Political Work is scheduled to arrive in the area of combat missions of the BTGr unit in Yasynivka, Donetsk region.
Numerous cases of refusal to continue service and reluctance to sign contracts with conscripts have been reported in units of the Baltic Fleet, in particular the 79th Detached Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 11th Army Corps.
On the territory of the republic of belarus, the movement of military equipment of the armed forces of the russian federation was recorded, probably for the purpose of regrouping units, as well as creating a reserve to replenish losses in manpower, weapons and equipment of groups operating in Ukraine.
In the territories of the Kyiv region left by the enemy, there are frequent cases of mining of the territory and buildings of local residents.
The Defence Forces Group of Ukraine continues to conduct a defence operation in the Eastern, Southeastern and Northeastern directions. In all directions, the russian enemy is successfully restrained by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in some – our troops are carrying out successful counterattacks.
The Joint Forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas repulsed 5 enemy attacks in a day. Our soldiers destroyed 10 tanks, 18 armoured and 13 units of vehicles, 15 artillery systems. The enemy suffered casualties.
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has hit 7 air targets in the previous day – 4 planes, UAVs and 2 cruise missiles. Air Force aircraft continue to launch missile and bomb strikes on places of accumulation of equipment and enemy manpower.

• Das Morgenbriefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums:

The units of the Russian Armed Forces, continuing their offensive, took complete control of Zolotaya Niva, crossed Kashlagach River and occupied an advantageous position.
The advance was 6 kilometers. Up to 60 Ukrainian nationalists, 2 tanks, 4 infantry fighting vehicles, 9 vehicles for various purposes were destroyed.
Units of the Lugansk People’s Republic, having completed the mopping-up of Zhitlovka, have advanced 5 kilometers and are fighting with nationalists on the outskirts of Kremennaya.
On the evening of March 30, high-precision air-based cruise missiles destroyed large fuel bases in Dnepropetrovsk, Lisichansk, Chuguev and Novomoskovsk, from which fuel was supplied to the Ukrainian military grouping in Donbass.
During the day, operational-tactical and army aviation hit 52 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Among them: 4 command posts, 1 S-300 anti-aircraft missile system south of Izyum and 1 Buk-M1 near Kurakhovo, 2 multiple aunch rocket systems, 1 ammunition and missile-artillery weapons depot, 2 fuel depots and 38 strong points and areas of military equipment concentration.
Russian air defence means shot down 18 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of Balakleya, Verbovoye, Verhnetoretskoe, Dokuchaevsk, Korolevka, Komarin, Opytnoe, Pavlovka, Repki, Chernigov, Chernobyl and Shchors, including 1 Bayraktar-TB2 near Bezymyannoe.
In total, 124 aircfaft and 77 helicopters, 216 unmanned aerial vehicles, 341 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,815 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 195 multiple launch rocket systems, 762 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,689 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

• Die NATO hat nach den Worten Ihres Generalsekretärs Jens Stoltenberg keine Hinweise darauf, dass russische Streitkräfte tatsächlich aus einzelnen Regionen der Ukraine abziehen:

We have heard the recent statements that Russia will scale down military operations around Kyiv and in northern Ukraine. But Russia has repeatedly lied about its intentions. So we can only judge Russia on its actions, not on its words. According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing, but repositioning.
Russia is trying to regroup, resupply and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region. At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities. So we can expect additional offensive actions, bringing even more suffering.

• Deutschland hat der Ukraine bisher Waffen im Wert von gut 80 Millionen Euro zur Verfügung gestellt. Weitere Lieferungen würden zusammen mit der Ukraine geprüft, dabei gehe es um Einkäufe bei der deutschen Industrie, sagte Verteidigungsministerin Christine Lambrecht bei ihrem Besuch in den USA:

Lambrecht UKR Waffenlieferungen 31mrz2022     

 

Der britische Verteidigungsminister Ben Wallace kündigte unterdessen nach einer Konferenz von Geberstaaten in London an, die Ukraine werde mit weiteren Waffenlieferungen longer range artillery, ammunition, and more anti-aircraft weapons erhalten – was auch immer das konkret bedeutet, vor allem im Hinblick auf weiter reichende Artillerie.

Ergänzung: die Pressemitteilung des britischen Verteidigungsministeriums ist etwas ausführlicher und deutet schwerere Waffen als bisher an, allerdings auch ohne Details:

The international community has committed to widening its package of military support for Ukraine and explored new ways of sustaining the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the longer term, including the provision of increasingly capable air and coastal defence systems, artillery and counter battery capabilities, armoured vehicles and protected mobility, as well as wider training and logistical support.

• Das Abendbriefing des ukrainischen Generalstabs (Hinweis: die Webseite der ukrainischen Regierung ist derzeit, warum auch immer, gestört. Das Briefing wurde nur auf Ukrainisch auf der Facebook-Seite veröffentlicht; die Übersetzung via deepl.com ist da nicht so glatt wie aus dem Russischen):

Die russischen Besatzungstruppen versuchen, eine neue Truppengruppierung im Slobozhansky-Sektor zu bilden, um die Kontrolle über Teile der Regionen Charkiw, Luhansk und Donezk zu erlangen, einschließlich einer Blockade der Städte Slovyansk und Kramatorsk.
Der Feind greift weiterhin die Stadt Popasna an, vermutlich um die ukrainische Militärführung von dem Versuch abzuhalten, die Kontrolle über Izyum und Mariupol zu erlangen.
An der nordukrainischen Kontaktlinie ist die Verlegung von Söldnern aus den Nachbarländern in die belarussische Stadt Gomel im Gange.
Nach vorliegenden Informationen wurden am 29. März 200 Rekruten auf den Militärflugplatz von Gomel verlegt. Darüber hinaus verlegt Russland weiterhin Raketeneinheiten nach Weißrussland, um die Intensität der Angriffe mit ballistischen Raketen auf bewohnte Gebiete und die Infrastruktur im Hoheitsgebiet der Ukraine zu erhöhen. So wurden beispielsweise drei Iskander-Raketenwerfer und zwei S-300-Raketenwerfer in der Region Gomel stationiert, um sie zu schützen.
Die Besatzungstruppen behalten zwar militärische Ausrüstung im Hoheitsgebiet der Ukraine, ergreifen aber immer häufiger Maßnahmen, um sie zu entsorgen. Darüber hinaus hat der Feind häufig Minenfelder angelegt.
In den vorübergehend vom Feind besetzten Gebieten schränkt er weiterhin den Transfer der lokalen Bevölkerung ein, und die russische Guerilla nimmt ukrainische Bürger als Geiseln und transportiert von der Zivilbevölkerung geraubte Güter.
Die Russische Föderation hat damit begonnen, dass Angehörige von russischen Soldaten, die im Krieg gegen die Ukraine getötet wurden, Klage gegen Militärbefehlshaber erheben. Ein ähnlicher Fall einer Klage gegen den Kommandeur wurde beim 752. motorisierten Infanterieregiment der 3. motorisierten Division der 20. allgemeinen Armee des westlichen Militärbezirks registriert.

• Das Abendbriefing des russischen Verteidigungsministeriums. Auffällige Aussage: zwei ukrainische Hubschrauber, die angeblich den Stab des Azow-Bataillons aus dem umkämpften Mariupol ausfliegen sollten, seien abgeschossen worden – einer davon, so wird ausdrücklich betont, mit einem erbeuteten Stinger-Flugabwehrsystem aus den USA:

Units of the Lugansk People’s Republic continue their offensive on the outskirts of Severodonetsk, advancing 2km deep into the defence of the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. More than 40 Ukrainian brigade personnel, 3 IFVs, 3 vehicles of various purposes and 2 field depots for missile and artillery weapons were destroyed.
The grouping of troops of the Donetsk People’s Republic, continuing an offensive, has taken control of part of Novobakhmutovka. Part of its troops are fighting units of 25th Ukrainian Airborne Brigade on the outskirts of Novoselovka II. During the day, more than 50 nationalists, 1 tank, 4 IFVs, a field ammunition depot and a fuel convoy of five vehicles were destroyed.
During the day, operational-tactical and army aviation hit 28 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Among them: 4 command posts, 3 field depots of missile and artillery weapons, as well as 6 areas of military equipment concentration.
Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter 30 kilometres west of Izyum city and 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Tamarino, Lisichansk and Volnovakha.
On the morning of March 31, the Kiev regime attempted to evacuate the command staff of the Ukrainian nationalist Azov regiment from Mariupol by 2 Mi-8 helicopters.
1st Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter was shot down by a crew of portable anti-aircraft missile system of the People’s Militia of the Donetsk Republic, using a trophy US Stinger system, and crashed near Rybatskoe.
The 2nd Ukrainian Mi-8 – damaged by a missile hit, dodged towards the sea, but crashed roughly 20 kilometres off the coast.
In total, 124 aircfaft and 80 helicopters, 345 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,826 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 195 multiple launch rocket systems, 702 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,704 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.